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Politics·Primaries

NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner

Ritchie Torres 82%

Michael Blake 16%

Dalourny Nemorin 2.3%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Ritchie Torres 82%

Michael Blake 16%

Dalourny Nemorin 2.3%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Ritchie Torres

$0 Vol.

82%

Michael Blake

$0 Vol.

16%

Dalourny Nemorin

$4,534 Vol.

2%

Amanda Septimo

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres dominates trader consensus at 81% implied probability in the NY-15 Democratic primary, driven by his incumbency advantage, massive fundraising edge—over $2 million raised—and endorsements from key Bronx labor unions and Latino leaders in the district's heavily Hispanic electorate. Recent polls from Data for Progress and others confirm his double-digit leads, unchanged despite challengers criticizing his Israel support amid Gaza tensions. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake holds second at 16.5% on name recognition from past runs, while activist Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (0.8%) remain marginal. With the June 25 primary imminent, early voting trends favor the incumbent in this safe Democratic seat.

Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres dominates trader consensus at 81% implied probability in the NY-15 Democratic primary, driven by his incumbency advantage, massive fundraising edge—over $2 million raised—and endorsements from key Bronx labor unions and Latino leaders in the district's heavily Hispanic electorate. Recent polls from Data for Progress and others confirm his double-digit leads, unchanged despite challengers criticizing his Israel support amid Gaza tensions. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake holds second at 16.5% on name recognition from past runs, while activist Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (0.8%) remain marginal. With the June 25 primary imminent, early voting trends favor the incumbent in this safe Democratic seat.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres dominates trader consensus at 81% implied probability in the NY-15 Democratic primary, driven by his incumbency advantage, massive fundraising edge—over $2 million raised—and endorsements from key Bronx labor unions and Latino leaders in the district's heavily Hispanic electorate. Recent polls from Data for Progress and others confirm his double-digit leads, unchanged despite challengers criticizing his Israel support amid Gaza tensions. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake holds second at 16.5% on name recognition from past runs, while activist Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (0.8%) remain marginal. With the June 25 primary imminent, early voting trends favor the incumbent in this safe Democratic seat.

Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres dominates trader consensus at 81% implied probability in the NY-15 Democratic primary, driven by his incumbency advantage, massive fundraising edge—over $2 million raised—and endorsements from key Bronx labor unions and Latino leaders in the district's heavily Hispanic electorate. Recent polls from Data for Progress and others confirm his double-digit leads, unchanged despite challengers criticizing his Israel support amid Gaza tensions. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake holds second at 16.5% on name recognition from past runs, while activist Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (0.8%) remain marginal. With the June 25 primary imminent, early voting trends favor the incumbent in this safe Democratic seat.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ritchie Torres" at 82%, followed by "Michael Blake" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Ritchie Torres" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Blake" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.