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Elections·Primaries

NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Stefany Shaheen 61%

Maura Sullivan 27%

Carleigh Beriont 11%

Heath Howard 3.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Stefany Shaheen 61%

Maura Sullivan 27%

Carleigh Beriont 11%

Heath Howard 3.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Stefany Shaheen

$6,876 Vol.

61%

Maura Sullivan

$1,014 Vol.

27%

Carleigh Beriont

$1,255 Vol.

11%

Heath Howard

$0 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District—vacated by Rep. Chris Pappas's U.S. Senate bid—Stefany Shaheen holds a trader consensus of 60.5% implied probability, driven by her consistent polling lead and strong name recognition from her state Senate service and family political legacy. A January 2026 University of New Hampshire poll showed her at 33% among likely primary voters, ahead of Heath Howard (10%), Maura Sullivan (8%), and Carleigh Beriont (3%), with 39% undecided amid a fragmented nine-candidate field. Sullivan's 26.5% reflects competitive fundraising and her military background, bolstered by a March 29 endorsement from former Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy. Beriont (11%) and Howard (4.7%) trail on lower visibility, as traders weigh undecideds ahead of the June filing deadline and September 8 primary.

In the open Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District—vacated by Rep. Chris Pappas's U.S. Senate bid—Stefany Shaheen holds a trader consensus of 60.5% implied probability, driven by her consistent polling lead and strong name recognition from her state Senate service and family political legacy. A January 2026 University of New Hampshire poll showed her at 33% among likely primary voters, ahead of Heath Howard (10%), Maura Sullivan (8%), and Carleigh Beriont (3%), with 39% undecided amid a fragmented nine-candidate field. Sullivan's 26.5% reflects competitive fundraising and her military background, bolstered by a March 29 endorsement from former Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy. Beriont (11%) and Howard (4.7%) trail on lower visibility, as traders weigh undecideds ahead of the June filing deadline and September 8 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District—vacated by Rep. Chris Pappas's U.S. Senate bid—Stefany Shaheen holds a trader consensus of 60.5% implied probability, driven by her consistent polling lead and strong name recognition from her state Senate service and family political legacy. A January 2026 University of New Hampshire poll showed her at 33% among likely primary voters, ahead of Heath Howard (10%), Maura Sullivan (8%), and Carleigh Beriont (3%), with 39% undecided amid a fragmented nine-candidate field. Sullivan's 26.5% reflects competitive fundraising and her military background, bolstered by a March 29 endorsement from former Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy. Beriont (11%) and Howard (4.7%) trail on lower visibility, as traders weigh undecideds ahead of the June filing deadline and September 8 primary.

In the open Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District—vacated by Rep. Chris Pappas's U.S. Senate bid—Stefany Shaheen holds a trader consensus of 60.5% implied probability, driven by her consistent polling lead and strong name recognition from her state Senate service and family political legacy. A January 2026 University of New Hampshire poll showed her at 33% among likely primary voters, ahead of Heath Howard (10%), Maura Sullivan (8%), and Carleigh Beriont (3%), with 39% undecided amid a fragmented nine-candidate field. Sullivan's 26.5% reflects competitive fundraising and her military background, bolstered by a March 29 endorsement from former Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy. Beriont (11%) and Howard (4.7%) trail on lower visibility, as traders weigh undecideds ahead of the June filing deadline and September 8 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stefany Shaheen" at 61%, followed by "Maura Sullivan" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Stefany Shaheen" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Maura Sullivan" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.