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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Hungary PM 64%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 14%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 3.3%

Starmer - UK PM 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,502,095 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM 64%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 14%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 3.3%

Starmer - UK PM 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,502,095 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM

$32,964 Vol.

64%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$22,440 Vol.

14%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$1,015,311 Vol.

3%

Starmer - UK PM

$562,887 Vol.

3%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$356,416 Vol.

2%

Petro - Colombia President

$16,938 Vol.

2%

Trump - USA President

$217,234 Vol.

2%

Putin - Russia President

$358,835 Vol.

2%

None before 2027

$21,656 Vol.

2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$19,139 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$74,774 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$88,411 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$44,736 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$71,607 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$23,321 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$74,521 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$45,989 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$28,106 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$79,541 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$27,748 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$61,998 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$118,203 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$40,491 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$31,616 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$67,213 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 64%, propelled by opposition Tisza party polls showing a lead over Fidesz ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Late March surveys, including Publicus indicating Tisza at 39% versus Fidesz's 35% on betting questions, reflect youth mobilization, economic discontent, and Péter Magyar's challenge after scandals eroding the incumbent's dominance. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 14.5%, amid March blackouts from U.S. oil sanctions under President Trump fueling protests and high-level talks hinting at regime pressure. Lower probabilities for UK PM Keir Starmer and Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu arise from Labour's majority and Knesset budget passage staving off early elections.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,502,095
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 64%, propelled by opposition Tisza party polls showing a lead over Fidesz ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Late March surveys, including Publicus indicating Tisza at 39% versus Fidesz's 35% on betting questions, reflect youth mobilization, economic discontent, and Péter Magyar's challenge after scandals eroding the incumbent's dominance. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 14.5%, amid March blackouts from U.S. oil sanctions under President Trump fueling protests and high-level talks hinting at regime pressure. Lower probabilities for UK PM Keir Starmer and Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu arise from Labour's majority and Knesset budget passage staving off early elections.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,502,095
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 64%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $3.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.