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Geopolitics·Middle East

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Middle East

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

$1,269,585 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,269,585 Vol.

Polymarket

April 30

$507,864 Vol.

8%

May 31

$145,914 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.**Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance since his March 8, 2026, appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes**, with state media releasing only written statements, undated videos, or archival footage amid persistent rumors of injuries from the February 28 strike on his residence. On April 18, he issued a statement warning Iran's navy is prepared to inflict "new bitter defeats" on the US and Israel, as Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate with US naval blockades, minesweeping incidents, and stalled nuclear negotiations via Pakistani mediators. IRGC backing bolsters his position, but absence fuels leadership uncertainty; traders monitor for potential sightings at mourning events or diplomatic summits, where authentic photos or video could resolve markets.**

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Volume
$1,269,585
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.**Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance since his March 8, 2026, appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes**, with state media releasing only written statements, undated videos, or archival footage amid persistent rumors of injuries from the February 28 strike on his residence. On April 18, he issued a statement warning Iran's navy is prepared to inflict "new bitter defeats" on the US and Israel, as Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate with US naval blockades, minesweeping incidents, and stalled nuclear negotiations via Pakistani mediators. IRGC backing bolsters his position, but absence fuels leadership uncertainty; traders monitor for potential sightings at mourning events or diplomatic summits, where authentic photos or video could resolve markets.**

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Volume
$1,269,585
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 31%, followed by "April 30" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" is "May 31" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.