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Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Lisa Demuth 53%

Kendall Qualls 20%

Mike Lindell 15%

Kristin Robbins <1%

Polymarket

$290,189 Vol.

Lisa Demuth 53%

Kendall Qualls 20%

Mike Lindell 15%

Kristin Robbins <1%

Polymarket

$290,189 Vol.

Lisa Demuth

$54,386 Vol.

53%

Kendall Qualls

$44,362 Vol.

20%

Mike Lindell

$86,000 Vol.

15%

Kristin Robbins

$6,869 Vol.

1%

Scott Jensen

$51,605 Vol.

1%

Patrick Knight

$9,569 Vol.

<1%

Phil Parrish

$23,193 Vol.

<1%

Chris Madel

$6,896 Vol.

<1%

Jeff Johnson

$2,617 Vol.

<1%

Brad Kohler

$4,690 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.House Speaker Lisa Demuth holds a commanding trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary, driven by her decisive 32% win in the February precinct caucus straw polls across the state, bolstering her establishment credentials amid a crowded field of over a dozen candidates. Kendall Qualls trails at 20%, supported by top-tier fundraising as an Army veteran and political outsider, further strengthened by his March announcement of manufacturing CEO Brian Nicholson as lieutenant governor running mate. Mike Lindell's 15% reflects his national name recognition and recent media push declaring himself "all-in," despite polarizing profile. Recent withdrawals like Scott Jensen have consolidated support behind frontrunners, with the August 11 primary looming alongside potential endorsements and debates as key catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$290,189
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.House Speaker Lisa Demuth holds a commanding trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary, driven by her decisive 32% win in the February precinct caucus straw polls across the state, bolstering her establishment credentials amid a crowded field of over a dozen candidates. Kendall Qualls trails at 20%, supported by top-tier fundraising as an Army veteran and political outsider, further strengthened by his March announcement of manufacturing CEO Brian Nicholson as lieutenant governor running mate. Mike Lindell's 15% reflects his national name recognition and recent media push declaring himself "all-in," despite polarizing profile. Recent withdrawals like Scott Jensen have consolidated support behind frontrunners, with the August 11 primary looming alongside potential endorsements and debates as key catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$290,189
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lisa Demuth" at 53%, followed by "Kendall Qualls" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $290.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Lisa Demuth" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kendall Qualls" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.