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Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Peggy Flanagan 80%

Angie Craig 16%

Keith Ellison 1.2%

Melisa López Franzen 1.1%

Polymarket

$25,517 Vol.

Peggy Flanagan 80%

Angie Craig 16%

Keith Ellison 1.2%

Melisa López Franzen 1.1%

Polymarket

$25,517 Vol.

Peggy Flanagan

$3,810 Vol.

80%

Angie Craig

$4,126 Vol.

16%

Keith Ellison

$0 Vol.

1%

Melisa López Franzen

$0 Vol.

1%

Ilhan Omar

$0 Vol.

1%

Betty McCollum

$3,531 Vol.

1%

Melisa Hortman

$7,172 Vol.

1%

Steve Simon

$0 Vol.

<1%

David Wellstone

$6,878 Vol.

<1%

Jacob Frey

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan's 79.5% implied probability as Minnesota Democratic Senate primary winner stems from her consistent polling leads—averaging 12 points ahead of Rep. Angie Craig in recent surveys—and surging support among DFL delegates amid backlash to the Trump administration's ICE Operation Metro Surge raids, which have sparked protests and high caucus turnout favoring her progressive stance. Craig's 15.5% reflects damage from her early March op-ed regretting a 2025 Laken Riley Act vote expanding ICE powers, alienating base voters despite her fundraising edge. With the May DFL endorsing convention looming before the August 11 open primary, Flanagan's Tina Smith endorsement and delegate momentum drive trader consensus, while others like Keith Ellison garner negligible support as non-candidates or low-visibility entrants.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$25,517
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan's 79.5% implied probability as Minnesota Democratic Senate primary winner stems from her consistent polling leads—averaging 12 points ahead of Rep. Angie Craig in recent surveys—and surging support among DFL delegates amid backlash to the Trump administration's ICE Operation Metro Surge raids, which have sparked protests and high caucus turnout favoring her progressive stance. Craig's 15.5% reflects damage from her early March op-ed regretting a 2025 Laken Riley Act vote expanding ICE powers, alienating base voters despite her fundraising edge. With the May DFL endorsing convention looming before the August 11 open primary, Flanagan's Tina Smith endorsement and delegate momentum drive trader consensus, while others like Keith Ellison garner negligible support as non-candidates or low-visibility entrants.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$25,517
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 3:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Peggy Flanagan" at 80%, followed by "Angie Craig" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $25.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Peggy Flanagan" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angie Craig" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.