US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including defense industrial sites near Mashhad and ballistic missile facilities, as reported on March 27, driving trader consensus at 94.5% for military action persisting through March 31. President Trump stated the conflict is "not finished" with thousands of targets remaining, amid degraded Iranian drone and missile capabilities—down over 90% per US Central Command—yet no de-escalation signals. A US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24 demands Iran dismantle its nuclear program and end Axis of Resistance support, but Tehran rejected negotiations and countered with its own terms, sustaining active operations. Scenarios challenging this include an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough or Iranian capitulation before March 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action through March 31 95%
March 31 2.2%
March 30 <1%
March 29 <1%
$2,660,173 Vol.
$2,660,173 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
1%
March 31
2%
Military action through March 31
95%
Military action through March 31 95%
March 31 2.2%
March 30 <1%
March 29 <1%
$2,660,173 Vol.
$2,660,173 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
$285,444 Vol.
1%
March 30
$282,262 Vol.
1%
March 31
$371,078 Vol.
2%
Military action through March 31
$573,501 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including defense industrial sites near Mashhad and ballistic missile facilities, as reported on March 27, driving trader consensus at 94.5% for military action persisting through March 31. President Trump stated the conflict is "not finished" with thousands of targets remaining, amid degraded Iranian drone and missile capabilities—down over 90% per US Central Command—yet no de-escalation signals. A US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24 demands Iran dismantle its nuclear program and end Axis of Resistance support, but Tehran rejected negotiations and countered with its own terms, sustaining active operations. Scenarios challenging this include an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough or Iranian capitulation before March 31.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,660,173End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including defense industrial sites near Mashhad and ballistic missile facilities, as reported on March 27, driving trader consensus at 94.5% for military action persisting through March 31. President Trump stated the conflict is "not finished" with thousands of targets remaining, amid degraded Iranian drone and missile capabilities—down over 90% per US Central Command—yet no de-escalation signals. A US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24 demands Iran dismantle its nuclear program and end Axis of Resistance support, but Tehran rejected negotiations and countered with its own terms, sustaining active operations. Scenarios challenging this include an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough or Iranian capitulation before March 31.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,660,173End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including defense industrial sites near Mashhad and ballistic missile facilities, as reported on March 27, driving trader consensus at 94.5% for military action persisting through March 31. President Trump stated the conflict is "not finished" with thousands of targets remaining, amid degraded Iranian drone and missile capabilities—down over 90% per US Central Command—yet no de-escalation signals. A US 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 24 demands Iran dismantle its nuclear program and end Axis of Resistance support, but Tehran rejected negotiations and countered with its own terms, sustaining active operations. Scenarios challenging this include an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough or Iranian capitulation before March 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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