Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites—avoiding nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure—represent the most recent direct military action against Iran, following Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Both nations have since signaled de-escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and focusing retaliation through proxies like Hezbollah amid Israel's intensified operations in Lebanon. No further direct strikes have occurred in the past week, though U.S. actions against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria continue. Diplomatic channels remain open via Oman and Qatar, while the U.S. presidential election and potential Iranian proxy escalations could influence future hostilities before year-end deadlines. Traders weigh this fragile ceasefire against longstanding shadow war dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$144,879 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
2%
March 29
5%
March 30
8%
March 31
10%
April 15
32%
April 30
55%
May 31
53%
June 30
77%
$144,879 Vol.
March 26
$19,977 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$7,575 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$13,732 Vol.
2%
March 29
$19,500 Vol.
5%
March 30
$15,355 Vol.
8%
March 31
$68,109 Vol.
10%
April 15
$486 Vol.
32%
April 30
$0 Vol.
55%
May 31
$148 Vol.
53%
June 30
$0 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites—avoiding nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure—represent the most recent direct military action against Iran, following Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Both nations have since signaled de-escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and focusing retaliation through proxies like Hezbollah amid Israel's intensified operations in Lebanon. No further direct strikes have occurred in the past week, though U.S. actions against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria continue. Diplomatic channels remain open via Oman and Qatar, while the U.S. presidential election and potential Iranian proxy escalations could influence future hostilities before year-end deadlines. Traders weigh this fragile ceasefire against longstanding shadow war dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$144,879End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites—avoiding nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure—represent the most recent direct military action against Iran, following Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Both nations have since signaled de-escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and focusing retaliation through proxies like Hezbollah amid Israel's intensified operations in Lebanon. No further direct strikes have occurred in the past week, though U.S. actions against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria continue. Diplomatic channels remain open via Oman and Qatar, while the U.S. presidential election and potential Iranian proxy escalations could influence future hostilities before year-end deadlines. Traders weigh this fragile ceasefire against longstanding shadow war dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$144,879End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian military sites—avoiding nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure—represent the most recent direct military action against Iran, following Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage on Israel. Both nations have since signaled de-escalation, with Iran downplaying damage and focusing retaliation through proxies like Hezbollah amid Israel's intensified operations in Lebanon. No further direct strikes have occurred in the past week, though U.S. actions against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria continue. Diplomatic channels remain open via Oman and Qatar, while the U.S. presidential election and potential Iranian proxy escalations could influence future hostilities before year-end deadlines. Traders weigh this fragile ceasefire against longstanding shadow war dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions