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Politics·Primaries

Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner

Perry Johnson 47%

John James 37%

Anthony Hudson 3.3%

Joyce Gipson 2.7%

Polymarket

$21,194 Vol.

Perry Johnson 47%

John James 37%

Anthony Hudson 3.3%

Joyce Gipson 2.7%

Polymarket

$21,194 Vol.

Perry Johnson

$8,529 Vol.

47%

John James

$6,911 Vol.

37%

Anthony Hudson

$0 Vol.

3%

Joyce Gipson

$0 Vol.

3%

Tom Leonard

$0 Vol.

2%

Mike Cox

$2,224 Vol.

2%

Ralph Rebandt

$866 Vol.

2%

William Null

$802 Vol.

2%

Karla Wagner

$0 Vol.

1%

Evan Space

$648 Vol.

1%

Aric Nesbitt

$1,213 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Perry Johnson's recent surge in late March polls, including a 17% showing against John James' 18% in an 1892 Polling survey of likely Republican primary voters, alongside victories in GOP straw polls and a heavy self-funded TV ad blitz criticizing James for dodging debates, has propelled him to trader consensus favorite at 46% implied probability for the 2026 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nomination. James holds at 36.5% on established congressional name recognition and past statewide runs, but faces erosion amid the crowded field with Aric Nesbitt at 9.3%. The tight race persists due to undecided voters, absence of major endorsements like a potential Trump nod, and no dominant turnout edge; separation could emerge from upcoming filing deadlines, head-to-head debates, or fresh polling in key swing areas like Macomb County ahead of the August primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$21,194
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Perry Johnson's recent surge in late March polls, including a 17% showing against John James' 18% in an 1892 Polling survey of likely Republican primary voters, alongside victories in GOP straw polls and a heavy self-funded TV ad blitz criticizing James for dodging debates, has propelled him to trader consensus favorite at 46% implied probability for the 2026 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nomination. James holds at 36.5% on established congressional name recognition and past statewide runs, but faces erosion amid the crowded field with Aric Nesbitt at 9.3%. The tight race persists due to undecided voters, absence of major endorsements like a potential Trump nod, and no dominant turnout edge; separation could emerge from upcoming filing deadlines, head-to-head debates, or fresh polling in key swing areas like Macomb County ahead of the August primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$21,194
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Perry Johnson" at 47%, followed by "John James" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $21.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Perry Johnson" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John James" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Michigan Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.