Israeli Defense Forces have intensified their ground offensive in southern Lebanon since early March, destroying key Litani River bridges used by Hezbollah for weapons transfers and ordering evacuations south of the river, while signaling plans for a security buffer zone up to that line amid over 70 cross-border attacks this week. Hezbollah's redeployment of elite fighters and anti-tank strikes have slowed advances, sustaining fierce clashes and creating trader uncertainty reflected in the even 50.5% Yes odds. A major IDF push establishing sustained presence north of the Litani could boost Yes probabilities, while U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks or intensified diplomatic pressure from the UN and Lebanon might favor No by halting escalation before June 30.