Amid the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran entering day 36 since February 28, trader consensus gives Yes a slim 51.5% edge, driven by Israeli officials' recent push—reported March 31—for US approval to target Iranian energy infrastructure, including power plants, with prepared strike lists aimed at economic pressure. President Trump's April 3 threats to hit bridges (already struck) and power plants next if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed heighten escalation signals, despite no confirmed power plant attacks amid prior hits on nuclear sites, steel plants, and defense facilities. The balance stems from US decision dependency, Iranian missile retaliation on Israeli and Gulf assets, and uncertainty over regime response; a Washington green light or fresh provocations could tip toward Yes, while diplomatic concessions favor No by April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsrael military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
$20,281 Vol.
$20,281 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$20,281 Vol.
$20,281 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran entering day 36 since February 28, trader consensus gives Yes a slim 51.5% edge, driven by Israeli officials' recent push—reported March 31—for US approval to target Iranian energy infrastructure, including power plants, with prepared strike lists aimed at economic pressure. President Trump's April 3 threats to hit bridges (already struck) and power plants next if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed heighten escalation signals, despite no confirmed power plant attacks amid prior hits on nuclear sites, steel plants, and defense facilities. The balance stems from US decision dependency, Iranian missile retaliation on Israeli and Gulf assets, and uncertainty over regime response; a Washington green light or fresh provocations could tip toward Yes, while diplomatic concessions favor No by April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$20,281End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran entering day 36 since February 28, trader consensus gives Yes a slim 51.5% edge, driven by Israeli officials' recent push—reported March 31—for US approval to target Iranian energy infrastructure, including power plants, with prepared strike lists aimed at economic pressure. President Trump's April 3 threats to hit bridges (already struck) and power plants next if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed heighten escalation signals, despite no confirmed power plant attacks amid prior hits on nuclear sites, steel plants, and defense facilities. The balance stems from US decision dependency, Iranian missile retaliation on Israeli and Gulf assets, and uncertainty over regime response; a Washington green light or fresh provocations could tip toward Yes, while diplomatic concessions favor No by April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,281End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran entering day 36 since February 28, trader consensus gives Yes a slim 51.5% edge, driven by Israeli officials' recent push—reported March 31—for US approval to target Iranian energy infrastructure, including power plants, with prepared strike lists aimed at economic pressure. President Trump's April 3 threats to hit bridges (already struck) and power plants next if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed heighten escalation signals, despite no confirmed power plant attacks amid prior hits on nuclear sites, steel plants, and defense facilities. The balance stems from US decision dependency, Iranian missile retaliation on Israeli and Gulf assets, and uncertainty over regime response; a Washington green light or fresh provocations could tip toward Yes, while diplomatic concessions favor No by April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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