US-Israel airstrikes on Iran's missile, nuclear, and oil infrastructure—now nearing completion per IDF statements—continue into the conflict's fifth week since late February's killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, anchoring trader sentiment amid President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Kharg Island to "take the oil." Iran's retaliatory missile salvos at Israel and US bases have declined 90% due to degraded launchers and stockpiles, yet persist alongside Houthi attacks on Israel and Israel's deeper Lebanon invasion. A US 15-point de-escalation proposal via Pakistan was dismissed by Tehran as one-sided, with 3,500 Marines newly deployed signaling ground risks; an April 6 deadline looms for potential escalation or talks, underscoring uncertain ceasefire prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$8,518,094 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
1%
April 15
15%
April 7
5%
April 30
26%
May 15
38%
June 30
63%
December 31
80%
$8,518,094 Vol.
March 31
$4,369,365 Vol.
1%
April 15
$967,617 Vol.
15%
April 7
$146,755 Vol.
5%
April 30
$732,674 Vol.
26%
May 15
$1,221,390 Vol.
38%
June 30
$850,900 Vol.
63%
December 31
$229,739 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israel airstrikes on Iran's missile, nuclear, and oil infrastructure—now nearing completion per IDF statements—continue into the conflict's fifth week since late February's killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, anchoring trader sentiment amid President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Kharg Island to "take the oil." Iran's retaliatory missile salvos at Israel and US bases have declined 90% due to degraded launchers and stockpiles, yet persist alongside Houthi attacks on Israel and Israel's deeper Lebanon invasion. A US 15-point de-escalation proposal via Pakistan was dismissed by Tehran as one-sided, with 3,500 Marines newly deployed signaling ground risks; an April 6 deadline looms for potential escalation or talks, underscoring uncertain ceasefire prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$8,518,094End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israel airstrikes on Iran's missile, nuclear, and oil infrastructure—now nearing completion per IDF statements—continue into the conflict's fifth week since late February's killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, anchoring trader sentiment amid President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Kharg Island to "take the oil." Iran's retaliatory missile salvos at Israel and US bases have declined 90% due to degraded launchers and stockpiles, yet persist alongside Houthi attacks on Israel and Israel's deeper Lebanon invasion. A US 15-point de-escalation proposal via Pakistan was dismissed by Tehran as one-sided, with 3,500 Marines newly deployed signaling ground risks; an April 6 deadline looms for potential escalation or talks, underscoring uncertain ceasefire prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$8,518,094End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israel airstrikes on Iran's missile, nuclear, and oil infrastructure—now nearing completion per IDF statements—continue into the conflict's fifth week since late February's killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, anchoring trader sentiment amid President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Kharg Island to "take the oil." Iran's retaliatory missile salvos at Israel and US bases have declined 90% due to degraded launchers and stockpiles, yet persist alongside Houthi attacks on Israel and Israel's deeper Lebanon invasion. A US 15-point de-escalation proposal via Pakistan was dismissed by Tehran as one-sided, with 3,500 Marines newly deployed signaling ground risks; an April 6 deadline looms for potential escalation or talks, underscoring uncertain ceasefire prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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