The US-Israel war on Iran, triggered by strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei around March 1 and now in its second month, remains active with no ceasefire in sight, as Iranian missiles recently hit an industrial zone in southern Israel and Houthis launched attacks for the first time, broadening the conflict. Ongoing US troop deployments and airstrikes target Tehran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and oil infrastructure, prompting retaliatory barrages on US bases and allies. Tehran rejected Washington's 15-point ceasefire plan, insisting on Strait of Hormuz control, while Pakistan prepares to host talks amid Israeli warnings of escalation. Diplomatic efforts persist, but military attrition and proxy involvement heighten uncertainty for resolution timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$8,432,756 Vol.
Mar 15, 2026
March 31
1%
April 15
14%
April 7
4%
April 30
25%
May 15
38%
June 30
60%
December 31
80%
$8,432,756 Vol.
March 31
$4,341,864 Vol.
1%
April 15
$955,356 Vol.
14%
April 7
$141,255 Vol.
4%
April 30
$727,440 Vol.
25%
May 15
$1,218,150 Vol.
38%
June 30
$828,636 Vol.
60%
December 31
$221,130 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war on Iran, triggered by strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei around March 1 and now in its second month, remains active with no ceasefire in sight, as Iranian missiles recently hit an industrial zone in southern Israel and Houthis launched attacks for the first time, broadening the conflict. Ongoing US troop deployments and airstrikes target Tehran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and oil infrastructure, prompting retaliatory barrages on US bases and allies. Tehran rejected Washington's 15-point ceasefire plan, insisting on Strait of Hormuz control, while Pakistan prepares to host talks amid Israeli warnings of escalation. Diplomatic efforts persist, but military attrition and proxy involvement heighten uncertainty for resolution timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$8,432,756End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war on Iran, triggered by strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei around March 1 and now in its second month, remains active with no ceasefire in sight, as Iranian missiles recently hit an industrial zone in southern Israel and Houthis launched attacks for the first time, broadening the conflict. Ongoing US troop deployments and airstrikes target Tehran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and oil infrastructure, prompting retaliatory barrages on US bases and allies. Tehran rejected Washington's 15-point ceasefire plan, insisting on Strait of Hormuz control, while Pakistan prepares to host talks amid Israeli warnings of escalation. Diplomatic efforts persist, but military attrition and proxy involvement heighten uncertainty for resolution timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$8,432,756End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The US-Israel war on Iran, triggered by strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei around March 1 and now in its second month, remains active with no ceasefire in sight, as Iranian missiles recently hit an industrial zone in southern Israel and Houthis launched attacks for the first time, broadening the conflict. Ongoing US troop deployments and airstrikes target Tehran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and oil infrastructure, prompting retaliatory barrages on US bases and allies. Tehran rejected Washington's 15-point ceasefire plan, insisting on Strait of Hormuz control, while Pakistan prepares to host talks amid Israeli warnings of escalation. Diplomatic efforts persist, but military attrition and proxy involvement heighten uncertainty for resolution timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions