US and Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and energy facilities into day 35 of the conflict that erupted on February 28, degrading Tehran's missile launchers by up to 90% per intelligence assessments, yet Iran retains retaliatory capacity as evidenced by its April 3 missile barrages on Israel—hitting during Passover—and Gulf states, igniting a Kuwaiti refinery. President Trump warned of intensified assaults on remaining assets, dismissing Iranian resilience claims, while Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal relayed via Pakistan and rebuffed diplomatic overtures amid mutual escalation signals. No de-escalation path has emerged, with Netanyahu declaring Iran no longer an existential threat but ongoing strikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions sustaining trader expectations for a prolonged war.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$12,638,902 Vol.
Apr 7, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 15
5%
April 7
1%
April 30
19%
May 15
34%
June 30
60%
December 31
85%
$12,638,902 Vol.
March 31
$5,162,924 Vol.
<1%
April 15
$1,896,923 Vol.
5%
April 7
$1,009,770 Vol.
1%
April 30
$1,278,587 Vol.
19%
May 15
$1,633,377 Vol.
34%
June 30
$1,202,620 Vol.
60%
December 31
$455,078 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and energy facilities into day 35 of the conflict that erupted on February 28, degrading Tehran's missile launchers by up to 90% per intelligence assessments, yet Iran retains retaliatory capacity as evidenced by its April 3 missile barrages on Israel—hitting during Passover—and Gulf states, igniting a Kuwaiti refinery. President Trump warned of intensified assaults on remaining assets, dismissing Iranian resilience claims, while Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal relayed via Pakistan and rebuffed diplomatic overtures amid mutual escalation signals. No de-escalation path has emerged, with Netanyahu declaring Iran no longer an existential threat but ongoing strikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions sustaining trader expectations for a prolonged war.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Volume
$12,638,902End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and energy facilities into day 35 of the conflict that erupted on February 28, degrading Tehran's missile launchers by up to 90% per intelligence assessments, yet Iran retains retaliatory capacity as evidenced by its April 3 missile barrages on Israel—hitting during Passover—and Gulf states, igniting a Kuwaiti refinery. President Trump warned of intensified assaults on remaining assets, dismissing Iranian resilience claims, while Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal relayed via Pakistan and rebuffed diplomatic overtures amid mutual escalation signals. No de-escalation path has emerged, with Netanyahu declaring Iran no longer an existential threat but ongoing strikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions sustaining trader expectations for a prolonged war.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$12,638,902End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and energy facilities into day 35 of the conflict that erupted on February 28, degrading Tehran's missile launchers by up to 90% per intelligence assessments, yet Iran retains retaliatory capacity as evidenced by its April 3 missile barrages on Israel—hitting during Passover—and Gulf states, igniting a Kuwaiti refinery. President Trump warned of intensified assaults on remaining assets, dismissing Iranian resilience claims, while Tehran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal relayed via Pakistan and rebuffed diplomatic overtures amid mutual escalation signals. No de-escalation path has emerged, with Netanyahu declaring Iran no longer an existential threat but ongoing strikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions sustaining trader expectations for a prolonged war.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions