Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

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Iran response to Israel by Friday?

$35,495 Vol.

50% chance

Rules

On April 1, 2024, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Syria, killing a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran promised a "decisive response".

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an Iranian response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria by April 5, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

A response by Iran refers to action(s) carried out by Iran that are explicitly in response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria, which may include strikes, cyber attacks, sanctions, etc.

Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market even if explicitly claimed by the Iranian government.

The resolution source will be official sources from the Iranian government, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.
Volume
$35,495
End Date
Apr 5, 2024
Created At
Apr 1, 2024, 7:04 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$35,495 Vol.

Market icon

Iran response to Israel by Friday?

50% chance

About

On April 1, 2024, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Syria, killing a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran promised a "decisive response".

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an Iranian response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria by April 5, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

A response by Iran refers to action(s) carried out by Iran that are explicitly in response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria, which may include strikes, cyber attacks, sanctions, etc.

Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market even if explicitly claimed by the Iranian government.

The resolution source will be official sources from the Iranian government, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.
Volume
$35,495
Created At
Apr 1, 2024, 7:04 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.