US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, stalled in mid-March without Iran publicly committing to surrender its estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile, as demanded by Washington for sanctions relief. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated on February 28 that Tehran agreed to zero future stockpiling and IAEA verification during Geneva talks, but US officials insisted on transferring existing material to a third country—a red line for Iran. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported on March 19 that inspectors remain blocked from key sites like Isfahan amid post-war damage assessments. President Trump warned March 25-28 of escalated strikes if unproductive, heightening pressure before the market's March 31 resolution. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against entrenched positions and military tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
NEW
$33,806 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
13%
June 30
27%
December 31
35%
$33,806 Vol.
April 30
$6,396 Vol.
13%
June 30
$4,963 Vol.
27%
December 31
$22,446 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, stalled in mid-March without Iran publicly committing to surrender its estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile, as demanded by Washington for sanctions relief. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated on February 28 that Tehran agreed to zero future stockpiling and IAEA verification during Geneva talks, but US officials insisted on transferring existing material to a third country—a red line for Iran. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported on March 19 that inspectors remain blocked from key sites like Isfahan amid post-war damage assessments. President Trump warned March 25-28 of escalated strikes if unproductive, heightening pressure before the market's March 31 resolution. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against entrenched positions and military tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$33,806End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, stalled in mid-March without Iran publicly committing to surrender its estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile, as demanded by Washington for sanctions relief. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated on February 28 that Tehran agreed to zero future stockpiling and IAEA verification during Geneva talks, but US officials insisted on transferring existing material to a third country—a red line for Iran. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported on March 19 that inspectors remain blocked from key sites like Isfahan amid post-war damage assessments. President Trump warned March 25-28 of escalated strikes if unproductive, heightening pressure before the market's March 31 resolution. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against entrenched positions and military tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$33,806End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, stalled in mid-March without Iran publicly committing to surrender its estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile, as demanded by Washington for sanctions relief. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated on February 28 that Tehran agreed to zero future stockpiling and IAEA verification during Geneva talks, but US officials insisted on transferring existing material to a third country—a red line for Iran. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported on March 19 that inspectors remain blocked from key sites like Isfahan amid post-war damage assessments. President Trump warned March 25-28 of escalated strikes if unproductive, heightening pressure before the market's March 31 resolution. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against entrenched positions and military tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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