Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by the absence of diplomatic progress amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted after failed February nuclear talks and a missed March 31 deadline. IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's denial of access to four enrichment facilities and a hidden stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, underscoring non-compliance with safeguards. US demands, including a March 25 15-point proposal for full nuclear dismantlement, remain rejected by Tehran. Recent April 1 developments show President Trump prioritizing military degradation of facilities and potential commando seizure of stockpiles over negotiations, with no scheduled talks to bridge positions before the deadline. Late-breaking ceasefire or concession could shift odds, though barriers remain high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$199,074 Vol.
$199,074 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$199,074 Vol.
$199,074 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by the absence of diplomatic progress amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted after failed February nuclear talks and a missed March 31 deadline. IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's denial of access to four enrichment facilities and a hidden stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, underscoring non-compliance with safeguards. US demands, including a March 25 15-point proposal for full nuclear dismantlement, remain rejected by Tehran. Recent April 1 developments show President Trump prioritizing military degradation of facilities and potential commando seizure of stockpiles over negotiations, with no scheduled talks to bridge positions before the deadline. Late-breaking ceasefire or concession could shift odds, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volume
$199,074End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by the absence of diplomatic progress amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted after failed February nuclear talks and a missed March 31 deadline. IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's denial of access to four enrichment facilities and a hidden stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, underscoring non-compliance with safeguards. US demands, including a March 25 15-point proposal for full nuclear dismantlement, remain rejected by Tehran. Recent April 1 developments show President Trump prioritizing military degradation of facilities and potential commando seizure of stockpiles over negotiations, with no scheduled talks to bridge positions before the deadline. Late-breaking ceasefire or concession could shift odds, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$199,074End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by the absence of diplomatic progress amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted after failed February nuclear talks and a missed March 31 deadline. IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's denial of access to four enrichment facilities and a hidden stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, underscoring non-compliance with safeguards. US demands, including a March 25 15-point proposal for full nuclear dismantlement, remain rejected by Tehran. Recent April 1 developments show President Trump prioritizing military degradation of facilities and potential commando seizure of stockpiles over negotiations, with no scheduled talks to bridge positions before the deadline. Late-breaking ceasefire or concession could shift odds, though barriers remain high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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