Recent opinion polls released in late March and early April 2026 show Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party widening its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz–KDNP alliance by 19–23 percentage points among likely voters, with Tisza at around 56% and Fidesz–KDNP at 37% in the latest 21 Kutatóközpont survey. This polling surge, reflecting opposition momentum amid economic discontent and escalating campaign tensions ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, has driven trader consensus to price Tisza as an 81% implied probability favorite for the popular vote winner under Hungary's mixed electoral system. Fidesz–KDNP holds at 20%, buoyed by its organizational strengths and rural base, while other parties trail far behind; final undecided voters and turnout could still influence the closely watched race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTisza 81%
Fidesz–KDNP 20%
Other <1%
$262,663 Vol.
$262,663 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
20%
Tisza
81%
Other
<1%
Tisza 81%
Fidesz–KDNP 20%
Other <1%
$262,663 Vol.
$262,663 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
$125,222 Vol.
20%
Tisza
$111,365 Vol.
81%
Other
$26,076 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent opinion polls released in late March and early April 2026 show Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party widening its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz–KDNP alliance by 19–23 percentage points among likely voters, with Tisza at around 56% and Fidesz–KDNP at 37% in the latest 21 Kutatóközpont survey. This polling surge, reflecting opposition momentum amid economic discontent and escalating campaign tensions ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, has driven trader consensus to price Tisza as an 81% implied probability favorite for the popular vote winner under Hungary's mixed electoral system. Fidesz–KDNP holds at 20%, buoyed by its organizational strengths and rural base, while other parties trail far behind; final undecided voters and turnout could still influence the closely watched race.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$262,663End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent opinion polls released in late March and early April 2026 show Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party widening its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz–KDNP alliance by 19–23 percentage points among likely voters, with Tisza at around 56% and Fidesz–KDNP at 37% in the latest 21 Kutatóközpont survey. This polling surge, reflecting opposition momentum amid economic discontent and escalating campaign tensions ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, has driven trader consensus to price Tisza as an 81% implied probability favorite for the popular vote winner under Hungary's mixed electoral system. Fidesz–KDNP holds at 20%, buoyed by its organizational strengths and rural base, while other parties trail far behind; final undecided voters and turnout could still influence the closely watched race.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$262,663End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls released in late March and early April 2026 show Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party widening its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz–KDNP alliance by 19–23 percentage points among likely voters, with Tisza at around 56% and Fidesz–KDNP at 37% in the latest 21 Kutatóközpont survey. This polling surge, reflecting opposition momentum amid economic discontent and escalating campaign tensions ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, has driven trader consensus to price Tisza as an 81% implied probability favorite for the popular vote winner under Hungary's mixed electoral system. Fidesz–KDNP holds at 20%, buoyed by its organizational strengths and rural base, while other parties trail far behind; final undecided voters and turnout could still influence the closely watched race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
28%
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
69%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
96%
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