Trader consensus heavily favors exactly seven Republican senators from Class II seats not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms, reflecting confirmed announcements from Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), and most recently Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). This exceeds the historical midterm average of three to four retirements, creating open seats in battleground states like North Carolina and Iowa amid a broader wave of congressional exits. With primaries underway from March through September and no further announcements among the remaining 13 incumbents—including John Cornyn (Texas), Lindsey Graham (South Carolina), and Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia)—traders see limited upside risk for higher totals like eight or eleven, though late surprises remain possible before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 69%
11 9.6%
6 7.9%
5 7.6%
$72,862 Vol.
$72,862 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
3%
5
8%
6
8%
7
69%
8
7%
9
1%
10
1%
11
10%
12+
1%
7 69%
11 9.6%
6 7.9%
5 7.6%
$72,862 Vol.
$72,862 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$19,866 Vol.
3%
5
$15,398 Vol.
8%
6
$26,193 Vol.
8%
7
$2,138 Vol.
69%
8
$1,589 Vol.
7%
9
$1,211 Vol.
1%
10
$1,240 Vol.
1%
11
$918 Vol.
10%
12+
$4,308 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors exactly seven Republican senators from Class II seats not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms, reflecting confirmed announcements from Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), and most recently Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). This exceeds the historical midterm average of three to four retirements, creating open seats in battleground states like North Carolina and Iowa amid a broader wave of congressional exits. With primaries underway from March through September and no further announcements among the remaining 13 incumbents—including John Cornyn (Texas), Lindsey Graham (South Carolina), and Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia)—traders see limited upside risk for higher totals like eight or eleven, though late surprises remain possible before the November 3 general election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$72,862End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors exactly seven Republican senators from Class II seats not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms, reflecting confirmed announcements from Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), and most recently Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). This exceeds the historical midterm average of three to four retirements, creating open seats in battleground states like North Carolina and Iowa amid a broader wave of congressional exits. With primaries underway from March through September and no further announcements among the remaining 13 incumbents—including John Cornyn (Texas), Lindsey Graham (South Carolina), and Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia)—traders see limited upside risk for higher totals like eight or eleven, though late surprises remain possible before the November 3 general election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$72,862End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors exactly seven Republican senators from Class II seats not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms, reflecting confirmed announcements from Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing gubernatorial bid), Steve Daines (Montana, March 4), and most recently Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, March 24). This exceeds the historical midterm average of three to four retirements, creating open seats in battleground states like North Carolina and Iowa amid a broader wave of congressional exits. With primaries underway from March through September and no further announcements among the remaining 13 incumbents—including John Cornyn (Texas), Lindsey Graham (South Carolina), and Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia)—traders see limited upside risk for higher totals like eight or eleven, though late surprises remain possible before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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