Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Democratic victory at 59.5% implied probability for the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election, driven by former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms' commanding lead in Democratic primary polls—35-43% in recent Emerson College (March 5) and earlier surveys—while the Republican primary remains fragmented among eight candidates. Rick Jackson holds a narrow edge at 26% polling average, ahead of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (20%), with high undecideds (25-45%) in March JMC Analytics and Emerson polls reflecting internal GOP divisions, lawsuits, and anti-Jones ad campaigns. As an open seat with Gov. Brian Kemp term-limited, this dynamic positions Democrats strongly ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 general election in the battleground state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedGeorgia Governor Election Winner
Georgia Governor Election Winner
$30,184 Vol.
$30,184 Vol.

Democrat
60%

Republican
40%
$30,184 Vol.
$30,184 Vol.

Democrat
60%

Republican
40%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Democratic victory at 59.5% implied probability for the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election, driven by former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms' commanding lead in Democratic primary polls—35-43% in recent Emerson College (March 5) and earlier surveys—while the Republican primary remains fragmented among eight candidates. Rick Jackson holds a narrow edge at 26% polling average, ahead of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (20%), with high undecideds (25-45%) in March JMC Analytics and Emerson polls reflecting internal GOP divisions, lawsuits, and anti-Jones ad campaigns. As an open seat with Gov. Brian Kemp term-limited, this dynamic positions Democrats strongly ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 general election in the battleground state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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