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Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Daniel Ennis 75%

Janice Boylan 10.8%

John Stephens 8.5%

Gerry Hutch 4.0%

Polymarket

$762,901 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 75%

Janice Boylan 10.8%

John Stephens 8.5%

Gerry Hutch 4.0%

Polymarket

$762,901 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$9,372 Vol.

75%

Janice Boylan

$4,489 Vol.

11%

John Stephens

$73,732 Vol.

9%

Gerry Hutch

$492,969 Vol.

4%

Gillian Sherratt

$117,461 Vol.

2%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$35,812 Vol.

<1%

Malachy Steenson

$12,811 Vol.

<1%

Ray McAdam

$2,902 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$2,803 Vol.

<1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$5,332 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$2,553 Vol.

<1%

Janet Horner

$2,665 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus in the Dublin Central Dáil by-election heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 74.5%, driven by independent simulations projecting his victory and strong local appeal on housing reform amid cost-of-living pressures in the working-class constituency. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan holds second at 10.8% following her February selection, while Fianna Fáil newcomer John Stephens rose to 8.5% after his selection as candidate three days ago, emphasizing infrastructure and healthcare. Independent Gerry Hutch garners 4% despite €420,000 in bets, dismissed by former TD Bertie Ahern as unlikely to win. Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and others trail; the May vote's low turnout could amplify protest dynamics in this multi-candidate field vacated by Paschal Donohoe.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$762,901
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus in the Dublin Central Dáil by-election heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 74.5%, driven by independent simulations projecting his victory and strong local appeal on housing reform amid cost-of-living pressures in the working-class constituency. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan holds second at 10.8% following her February selection, while Fianna Fáil newcomer John Stephens rose to 8.5% after his selection as candidate three days ago, emphasizing infrastructure and healthcare. Independent Gerry Hutch garners 4% despite €420,000 in bets, dismissed by former TD Bertie Ahern as unlikely to win. Fine Gael's Ray McAdam and others trail; the May vote's low turnout could amplify protest dynamics in this multi-candidate field vacated by Paschal Donohoe.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$762,901
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Ennis" at 75%, followed by "Janice Boylan" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" has generated $762.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is "Daniel Ennis" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janice Boylan" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.