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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$957,371,854 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$957,371,854 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,523,015 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,450,796 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,250,012 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$8,863,934 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,012,043 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,624,101 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,622,308 Vol.

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,303,749 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$4,816,967 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,790,194 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,590,377 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,903,691 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,714,287 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,674,589 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,319,789 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$21,971,337 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,188,040 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,405,676 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,484,725 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,238,341 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,945,546 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,877,266 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,116,500 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,209,253 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,779,503 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,483,043 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,332,809 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,556,576 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,447,017 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,890,792 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,862,810 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,524,133 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,775,665 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,698,985 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,704,200 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,553,290 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,271,325 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,829,256 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,402,052 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,726,556 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,717,085 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,204,532 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,415,459 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,304,314 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24.6% implied probability, reflecting his high national name recognition, executive experience, and term limit freeing him after the 2026 midterms, amid ongoing anti-Trump positioning that bolsters his profile without recent declarations from any contender. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8%, buoyed by strong appeal to young and progressive voters per early polls, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% stems from his competitive Georgia Senate reelection path in a battleground state. The fragmented field, with no dominant polling leader, underscores a wide-open primary; consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating swing-state governors like Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer, superior fundraising, and party endorsements ahead of Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$957,371,854
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 24.6% implied probability, reflecting his high national name recognition, executive experience, and term limit freeing him after the 2026 midterms, amid ongoing anti-Trump positioning that bolsters his profile without recent declarations from any contender. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8%, buoyed by strong appeal to young and progressive voters per early polls, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% stems from his competitive Georgia Senate reelection path in a battleground state. The fragmented field, with no dominant polling leader, underscores a wide-open primary; consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results elevating swing-state governors like Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer, superior fundraising, and party endorsements ahead of Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$957,371,854
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $957.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.