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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$953,950,288 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.5%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$953,950,288 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,231,613 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,400,899 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,163,636 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$8,859,951 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,006,162 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,621,190 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,565,466 Vol.

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,110,059 Vol.

3%

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James Talarico

$4,549,704 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,679,990 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,505,655 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,723,789 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,314,445 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,713,150 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,671,000 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$21,952,688 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,020,742 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,379,011 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,469,580 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,231,787 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,930,367 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,849,714 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,101,461 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,184,087 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,735,173 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,453,082 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,307,467 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,507,163 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,158,060 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,874,098 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,665,036 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,842,180 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,498,769 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,756,596 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,667,085 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,505,889 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,216,936 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,767,889 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,361,689 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,659,381 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,697,367 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,339,714 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,016,309 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,714,127 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his executive experience as California governor, national visibility from past debates and book tours in early primary states like New Hampshire, and a recent POLITICO poll showing him dominating Kamala Harris in their home-state primary matchup. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff's 5.4% stems from his Georgia Senate incumbency in a battleground. The wide-open field post-2024 anticipates 2026 midterms as a key test, where strong gubernatorial or Senate performances, fundraising dominance, and party endorsements could consolidate support amid varying polls favoring Harris nationally.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$953,950,288
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, reflecting his executive experience as California governor, national visibility from past debates and book tours in early primary states like New Hampshire, and a recent POLITICO poll showing him dominating Kamala Harris in their home-state primary matchup. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff's 5.4% stems from his Georgia Senate incumbency in a battleground. The wide-open field post-2024 anticipates 2026 midterms as a key test, where strong gubernatorial or Senate performances, fundraising dominance, and party endorsements could consolidate support amid varying polls favoring Harris nationally.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$953,950,288
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $954 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.