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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7.7%

Jon Ossoff 5.9%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$960,929,609 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7.7%

Jon Ossoff 5.9%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$960,929,609 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,812,140 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,571,389 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,532,688 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$9,015,169 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,053,306 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,673,001 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,908,196 Vol.

3%

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James Talarico

$5,094,671 Vol.

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,669,542 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$11,015,869 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,804,730 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,206,352 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,324,637 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,731,070 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,709,349 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,981,605 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,208,382 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,592,365 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,493,293 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,126,109 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,951,717 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,083,371 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,254,019 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,215,518 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,784,035 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,488,769 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,353,936 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,565,449 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,456,311 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,901,162 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,708,197 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,864,845 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,528,634 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,906,410 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,718,457 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,572,149 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,363,221 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,838,564 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,420,609 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,749,236 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,725,528 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,247,134 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,430,098 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,310,939 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.7% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by March 2026 California primary polls from Politico and the LA Times showing him trouncing former Vice President Kamala Harris in their home state—her 31% national lead in a Center Square survey notwithstanding—amid party soul-searching post-2024. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 7.7% on her progressive appeal and recent high-profile clashes with Vice President JD Vance, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 6.0% reflects buzz from his viral anti-Trump speech earlier this year, highlighting battleground viability. In this wide-open field lacking a clear incumbent, consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, fundraising paces, and endorsements from key donors or party elders, with moderates mobilizing against progressive firebrands like Ocasio-Cortez to prioritize electability in swing states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$960,929,609
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.7% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by March 2026 California primary polls from Politico and the LA Times showing him trouncing former Vice President Kamala Harris in their home state—her 31% national lead in a Center Square survey notwithstanding—amid party soul-searching post-2024. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 7.7% on her progressive appeal and recent high-profile clashes with Vice President JD Vance, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's 6.0% reflects buzz from his viral anti-Trump speech earlier this year, highlighting battleground viability. In this wide-open field lacking a clear incumbent, consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, fundraising paces, and endorsements from key donors or party elders, with moderates mobilizing against progressive firebrands like Ocasio-Cortez to prioritize electability in swing states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$960,929,609
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $960.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.