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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$957,792,682 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.0%

Polymarket

$957,792,682 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,532,902 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,451,099 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,265,712 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$9,002,395 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,012,281 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,624,278 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,639,658 Vol.

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,336,390 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$4,842,715 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,809,445 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,621,811 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,935,496 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,714,494 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,674,665 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,319,914 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$21,971,828 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,188,277 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,409,678 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,484,908 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,238,661 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,945,820 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,877,454 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,116,500 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,209,253 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,780,791 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,483,886 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,336,529 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,559,392 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,447,084 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,892,574 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,863,653 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,524,955 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,779,618 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,712,301 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,554,115 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,329,648 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,832,553 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,404,000 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,699,642 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,727,059 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,718,706 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,208,483 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,420,348 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,305,660 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom holds a clear edge in trader consensus at 24.8% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his consistent lead in early 2026 national and state polls—like a March survey showing him topping Harris among California Democrats and 20% support nationally—bolstered by his national fundraising, anti-Trump posture post-2024, and executive experience. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects Georgia swing-state viability; Kamala Harris languishes at 4% after her election loss. With no incumbent and a fragmented field, consolidation hinges on 2026 midterm results, exploratory committees, endorsements, and fundraising tallies ahead of the 2028 primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$957,792,682
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom holds a clear edge in trader consensus at 24.8% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by his consistent lead in early 2026 national and state polls—like a March survey showing him topping Harris among California Democrats and 20% support nationally—bolstered by his national fundraising, anti-Trump posture post-2024, and executive experience. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects Georgia swing-state viability; Kamala Harris languishes at 4% after her election loss. With no incumbent and a fragmented field, consolidation hinges on 2026 midterm results, exploratory committees, endorsements, and fundraising tallies ahead of the 2028 primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$957,792,682
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $957.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.