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Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Eric Swalwell 61%

Tom Steyer 11.5%

Steve Hilton 8.4%

Matt Mahan 7%

Polymarket

$8,137,826 Vol.

Eric Swalwell 61%

Tom Steyer 11.5%

Steve Hilton 8.4%

Matt Mahan 7%

Polymarket

$8,137,826 Vol.

Eric Swalwell

$114,785 Vol.

61%

Tom Steyer

$2,636,030 Vol.

12%

Steve Hilton

$759,923 Vol.

8%

Matt Mahan

$169,108 Vol.

7%

Katie Porter

$598,725 Vol.

3%

Chad Bianco

$672,890 Vol.

3%

Elaine Culotti

$55,230 Vol.

2%

Alex Padilla

$228,562 Vol.

1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$62,608 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$146,362 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$315,540 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$129,875 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$123,765 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$179,520 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$255,393 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$117,695 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$87,133 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$115,788 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Becerra

$293,722 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$178,736 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$238,752 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$494,695 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$162,989 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell leads trader consensus at 61% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by his recent Emerson College poll lead in the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary, fresh California Teachers Association endorsement on March 30, and accusations of Trump administration election interference amplifying his fighter image. A crowded field of over 60 certified candidates, including Democrat Tom Steyer (11.5%) on self-funding and name recognition, Republican Steve Hilton (8.5%) buoyed by GOP surges in Democratic Party polling, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (6.5%), and Sen. Katie Porter (3.4%), risks vote-splitting that could advance two Republicans—but traders bet on Democratic consolidation in the deep-blue state, discounting historical GOP barriers despite recent primary volatility.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$8,137,826
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell leads trader consensus at 61% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial election, driven by his recent Emerson College poll lead in the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary, fresh California Teachers Association endorsement on March 30, and accusations of Trump administration election interference amplifying his fighter image. A crowded field of over 60 certified candidates, including Democrat Tom Steyer (11.5%) on self-funding and name recognition, Republican Steve Hilton (8.5%) buoyed by GOP surges in Democratic Party polling, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (6.5%), and Sen. Katie Porter (3.4%), risks vote-splitting that could advance two Republicans—but traders bet on Democratic consolidation in the deep-blue state, discounting historical GOP barriers despite recent primary volatility.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$8,137,826
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 61%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Election Winner" has generated $8.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Election Winner" is "Eric Swalwell" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.