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Politics·Primaries

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Bert Mizusawa 36%

Chuck Smith 23%

David Williams 21%

Al Mina 13.0%

Polymarket

$1,611,989 Vol.

Bert Mizusawa 36%

Chuck Smith 23%

David Williams 21%

Al Mina 13.0%

Polymarket

$1,611,989 Vol.

Bert Mizusawa

$4,720 Vol.

36%

Chuck Smith

$3,636 Vol.

23%

David Williams

$12,142 Vol.

21%

Al Mina

$1,087,904 Vol.

13%

Kim Farington

$445,111 Vol.

7%

Winsome Earle-Sears

$10,180 Vol.

1%

Bryce Reeves

$32,335 Vol.

1%

Jason Miyares

$13,438 Vol.

1%

Alex De Paula

$2,522 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.In the crowded Republican primary for Virginia's U.S. Senate seat ahead of the August 4, 2026, contest to challenge incumbent Mark Warner, trader consensus positions retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa as the modest frontrunner at 36%, buoyed by his recent filing of over 18,000 petition signatures last week—demonstrating robust grassroots mobilization before tomorrow's April 2 deadline. Marine veteran Chuck Smith (23%) and Navy/Marine Corps alum David Williams (21%) trail closely, their military service appealing to primary voters amid a fragmented nine-candidate field lacking polls or major endorsements. Lower odds for figures like Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears reflect limited declared interest, with uncertainty persisting until post-filing clarity emerges.

In the crowded Republican primary for Virginia's U.S. Senate seat ahead of the August 4, 2026, contest to challenge incumbent Mark Warner, trader consensus positions retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa as the modest frontrunner at 36%, buoyed by his recent filing of over 18,000 petition signatures last week—demonstrating robust grassroots mobilization before tomorrow's April 2 deadline. Marine veteran Chuck Smith (23%) and Navy/Marine Corps alum David Williams (21%) trail closely, their military service appealing to primary voters amid a fragmented nine-candidate field lacking polls or major endorsements. Lower odds for figures like Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears reflect limited declared interest, with uncertainty persisting until post-filing clarity emerges.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.In the crowded Republican primary for Virginia's U.S. Senate seat ahead of the August 4, 2026, contest to challenge incumbent Mark Warner, trader consensus positions retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa as the modest frontrunner at 36%, buoyed by his recent filing of over 18,000 petition signatures last week—demonstrating robust grassroots mobilization before tomorrow's April 2 deadline. Marine veteran Chuck Smith (23%) and Navy/Marine Corps alum David Williams (21%) trail closely, their military service appealing to primary voters amid a fragmented nine-candidate field lacking polls or major endorsements. Lower odds for figures like Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears reflect limited declared interest, with uncertainty persisting until post-filing clarity emerges.

In the crowded Republican primary for Virginia's U.S. Senate seat ahead of the August 4, 2026, contest to challenge incumbent Mark Warner, trader consensus positions retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa as the modest frontrunner at 36%, buoyed by his recent filing of over 18,000 petition signatures last week—demonstrating robust grassroots mobilization before tomorrow's April 2 deadline. Marine veteran Chuck Smith (23%) and Navy/Marine Corps alum David Williams (21%) trail closely, their military service appealing to primary voters amid a fragmented nine-candidate field lacking polls or major endorsements. Lower odds for figures like Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears reflect limited declared interest, with uncertainty persisting until post-filing clarity emerges.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bert Mizusawa" at 36%, followed by "Chuck Smith" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 27, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Bert Mizusawa" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Chuck Smith" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.