US and Israeli forces maintain high-tempo airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear sites at Arak and coastal missile infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz, following the war's onset in late February 2026. Just yesterday, the Pentagon disclosed preparations for weeks of limited US ground operations, including potential raids on Kharg Island, as thousands more American troops deploy amid reports of new casualties. Iran accuses the US of plotting invasion while warning neighbors against hosting strikes; UK bases enable US missions, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE defend against Iranian barrages with missile intercepts and counterfire. Trump administration's recent 15-point ceasefire offer awaits response, with Houthis launching fresh attacks on Israel ahead of the March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,836,142 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia
4%
UAE
3%
Qatar
2%
Bahrain
2%
Any E.U. Country
1%
UK
1%
Kuwait
1%
Jordan
1%
Turkey
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Germany
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,836,142 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$2,206,663 Vol.
4%
UAE
$2,852,050 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$946,220 Vol.
2%
Bahrain
$392,889 Vol.
2%
Any E.U. Country
$472,065 Vol.
1%
UK
$948,390 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$211,646 Vol.
1%
Jordan
$189,690 Vol.
1%
Turkey
$481,794 Vol.
1%
France
$750,278 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,073 Vol.
1%
Germany
$912,744 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$339,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces maintain high-tempo airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear sites at Arak and coastal missile infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz, following the war's onset in late February 2026. Just yesterday, the Pentagon disclosed preparations for weeks of limited US ground operations, including potential raids on Kharg Island, as thousands more American troops deploy amid reports of new casualties. Iran accuses the US of plotting invasion while warning neighbors against hosting strikes; UK bases enable US missions, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE defend against Iranian barrages with missile intercepts and counterfire. Trump administration's recent 15-point ceasefire offer awaits response, with Houthis launching fresh attacks on Israel ahead of the March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,836,142End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces maintain high-tempo airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear sites at Arak and coastal missile infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz, following the war's onset in late February 2026. Just yesterday, the Pentagon disclosed preparations for weeks of limited US ground operations, including potential raids on Kharg Island, as thousands more American troops deploy amid reports of new casualties. Iran accuses the US of plotting invasion while warning neighbors against hosting strikes; UK bases enable US missions, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE defend against Iranian barrages with missile intercepts and counterfire. Trump administration's recent 15-point ceasefire offer awaits response, with Houthis launching fresh attacks on Israel ahead of the March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,836,142End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces maintain high-tempo airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including nuclear sites at Arak and coastal missile infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz, following the war's onset in late February 2026. Just yesterday, the Pentagon disclosed preparations for weeks of limited US ground operations, including potential raids on Kharg Island, as thousands more American troops deploy amid reports of new casualties. Iran accuses the US of plotting invasion while warning neighbors against hosting strikes; UK bases enable US missions, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE defend against Iranian barrages with missile intercepts and counterfire. Trump administration's recent 15-point ceasefire offer awaits response, with Houthis launching fresh attacks on Israel ahead of the March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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