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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.7%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$508,106,682 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.7%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$508,106,682 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$8,293,948 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,804,314 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,402,337 Vol.

4%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,957,984 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,513,965 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,672,725 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,005,591 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,853,261 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,227,072 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,942,839 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,457,673 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,353,034 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,512,523 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,582,105 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,633,471 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,079,165 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,474,391 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,147,373 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,257,144 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,383,932 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,289,226 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,277,324 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,697,268 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,641,102 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,114,653 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,056,408 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,101,157 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,590,544 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,409,773 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,612,336 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,237,756 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,089,307 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,995,731 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,563,315 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$33,883,673 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, buoyed by his role as HHS Secretary in the Trump administration, strong MAGA appeal from his prior Trump endorsement, and recent family speculation—including cousin Jack Schlossberg's March assertion of a "definite" run—despite his own denials. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37% implied probability, leveraging incumbency and CPAC straw poll leads (53%), though reports of President Trump's private donor polling favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (now at 21%) have boosted the latter amid diverging stances on the ongoing Iran war. With Trump term-limited, the open primary remains fluid ahead of early state contests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$508,106,682
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, buoyed by his role as HHS Secretary in the Trump administration, strong MAGA appeal from his prior Trump endorsement, and recent family speculation—including cousin Jack Schlossberg's March assertion of a "definite" run—despite his own denials. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37% implied probability, leveraging incumbency and CPAC straw poll leads (53%), though reports of President Trump's private donor polling favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (now at 21%) have boosted the latter amid diverging stances on the ongoing Iran war. With Trump term-limited, the open primary remains fluid ahead of early state contests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$508,106,682
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $508.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.