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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 7.6%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$979,905,219 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 7.6%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$979,905,219 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$18,882,577 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$8,251,443 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,404,868 Vol.

8%

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Kamala Harris

$9,142,208 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,770,928 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,225,016 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$5,702,911 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$12,757,814 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,950,656 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$7,851,817 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,964,380 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,533,814 Vol.

2%

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Stephen A. Smith

$15,229,154 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,450,898 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,130,296 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,763,901 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,859,669 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,620,277 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,105,034 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,301,120 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,998,590 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,222,337 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,760,657 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,314,448 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,899,396 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,574,724 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,764,979 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,412,056 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,504,865 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,649,208 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,320,507 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,358,771 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,018,542 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,058,138 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,751,310 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,244,295 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$28,153,339 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,718,271 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$20,330,630 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$34,415,570 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,992,212 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$40,249,465 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,823,141 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$32,477,409 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.2% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by March 2026 polls showing him dominating a California primary matchup against Kamala Harris and tying for second in New Hampshire voter preferences among Democrats. This wide-open field reflects post-2024 recalibration, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8.0% buoyed by progressive fundraising and youth appeal, and Jon Ossoff at 7.6% gaining from his Georgia swing-state Senate victory and moderate profile. Key differentiators include Newsom's executive experience and national media clashes with Republican policies, AOC's grassroots energy, and Ossoff's battleground credentials. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes for governors and senators, early fundraising reports, and Iowa-New Hampshire organizing ahead of the 2028 primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$979,905,219
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.2% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, propelled by March 2026 polls showing him dominating a California primary matchup against Kamala Harris and tying for second in New Hampshire voter preferences among Democrats. This wide-open field reflects post-2024 recalibration, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8.0% buoyed by progressive fundraising and youth appeal, and Jon Ossoff at 7.6% gaining from his Georgia swing-state Senate victory and moderate profile. Key differentiators include Newsom's executive experience and national media clashes with Republican policies, AOC's grassroots energy, and Ossoff's battleground credentials. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm outcomes for governors and senators, early fundraising reports, and Iowa-New Hampshire organizing ahead of the 2028 primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$979,905,219
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $979.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.