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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 7.6%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$980,613,154 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 7.6%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$980,613,154 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$18,926,087 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$8,315,266 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,406,247 Vol.

8%

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Kamala Harris

$9,142,504 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,771,198 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,225,428 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$5,703,204 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$12,821,231 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,951,753 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$7,852,023 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,965,797 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,545,330 Vol.

2%

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Stephen A. Smith

$15,280,074 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,451,644 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,131,010 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,765,001 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,860,557 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,620,571 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,108,266 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,301,390 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$44,003,221 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,224,207 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,763,169 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,340,086 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,900,751 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,577,472 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,796,245 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,412,061 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,504,869 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,649,924 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,321,132 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,359,418 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,020,479 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,061,032 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,755,529 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,245,965 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$28,183,540 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,720,234 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$20,390,284 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$34,460,576 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$24,148,542 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$40,297,531 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,876,553 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$32,509,654 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24.2% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by recent surveys of Washington insiders and K Street leaders—published within the past three days—naming him the best positioned Democrat to lead the party amid President Trump's second term. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.1% on her progressive appeal and youth, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff holds 7.6% buoyed by swing-state incumbency and potential 2026 reelection strength. This wide-open field reflects post-2024 Democratic soul-searching after electoral losses, with Kamala Harris fading to 4.2%. Consolidation may hinge on 2026 midterm performances, fundraising hauls, and early primary state polls, as governors like Newsom eye national paths post-term limits.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$980,613,154
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24.2% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, driven by recent surveys of Washington insiders and K Street leaders—published within the past three days—naming him the best positioned Democrat to lead the party amid President Trump's second term. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.1% on her progressive appeal and youth, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff holds 7.6% buoyed by swing-state incumbency and potential 2026 reelection strength. This wide-open field reflects post-2024 Democratic soul-searching after electoral losses, with Kamala Harris fading to 4.2%. Consolidation may hinge on 2026 midterm performances, fundraising hauls, and early primary state polls, as governors like Newsom eye national paths post-term limits.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$980,613,154
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $980.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.