Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses marked the latest direct military exchange, prompting Tehran to condemn the attack while downplaying damage and signaling a measured response through Supreme Leader Khamenei's directives. Iran has refrained from further retaliation amid the November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire—brokered partly to curb proxy escalation—and ongoing Gaza truce talks involving U.S., Qatar, and Egypt mediators. Traders weigh Iran's preference for asymmetric warfare via proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis against risks of full-scale war, with U.S. President-elect Trump's pro-Israel stance and Syria's instability adding uncertainty. No confirmed Iranian strike plans have emerged in the past 30 days, though diplomatic rhetoric persists.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$477,523 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 23
60%
March 27
94%
March 28
84%
March 29
79%
March 30
82%
March 31
81%
$477,523 Vol.
March 23
$221,051 Vol.
60%
March 27
$22,518 Vol.
94%
March 28
$3,639 Vol.
84%
March 29
$5,083 Vol.
79%
March 30
$3,220 Vol.
82%
March 31
$3,148 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses marked the latest direct military exchange, prompting Tehran to condemn the attack while downplaying damage and signaling a measured response through Supreme Leader Khamenei's directives. Iran has refrained from further retaliation amid the November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire—brokered partly to curb proxy escalation—and ongoing Gaza truce talks involving U.S., Qatar, and Egypt mediators. Traders weigh Iran's preference for asymmetric warfare via proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis against risks of full-scale war, with U.S. President-elect Trump's pro-Israel stance and Syria's instability adding uncertainty. No confirmed Iranian strike plans have emerged in the past 30 days, though diplomatic rhetoric persists.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$477,523End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses marked the latest direct military exchange, prompting Tehran to condemn the attack while downplaying damage and signaling a measured response through Supreme Leader Khamenei's directives. Iran has refrained from further retaliation amid the November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire—brokered partly to curb proxy escalation—and ongoing Gaza truce talks involving U.S., Qatar, and Egypt mediators. Traders weigh Iran's preference for asymmetric warfare via proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis against risks of full-scale war, with U.S. President-elect Trump's pro-Israel stance and Syria's instability adding uncertainty. No confirmed Iranian strike plans have emerged in the past 30 days, though diplomatic rhetoric persists.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$477,523End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses marked the latest direct military exchange, prompting Tehran to condemn the attack while downplaying damage and signaling a measured response through Supreme Leader Khamenei's directives. Iran has refrained from further retaliation amid the November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire—brokered partly to curb proxy escalation—and ongoing Gaza truce talks involving U.S., Qatar, and Egypt mediators. Traders weigh Iran's preference for asymmetric warfare via proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis against risks of full-scale war, with U.S. President-elect Trump's pro-Israel stance and Syria's instability adding uncertainty. No confirmed Iranian strike plans have emerged in the past 30 days, though diplomatic rhetoric persists.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions