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Politics·Global Elections

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

TISZA 70%

Fidesz-KDNP 31%

DK <1%

LMP <1%

Polymarket

$52,284,112 Vol.

TISZA 70%

Fidesz-KDNP 31%

DK <1%

LMP <1%

Polymarket

$52,284,112 Vol.

Market icon

TISZA

$1,237,484 Vol.

70%

Market icon

Fidesz-KDNP

$1,367,471 Vol.

31%

Market icon

DK

$6,231,625 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

LMP

$14,725,813 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

MSZP

$456,333 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Momentum

$715,917 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mi Hazánk

$1,037,262 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Párbeszéd

$7,088,495 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Jobbik

$14,949,316 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

KDNP

$4,474,576 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election 11 days away on April 12, trader consensus heavily favors TISZA at nearly 70% implied probability to secure the most seats under the mixed single-member district and proportional list system, driven by independent polls like Medián's latest (58% TISZA vs. 35% Fidesz-KDNP among decided voters) and Reuters-reported surges showing a 20+ point lead widening in the past week. Péter Magyar's opposition momentum from half-million-strong March 15 rallies and voter discontent after 16 years of Fidesz governance outweigh recent Fidesz by-election victories, while fragmented rivals like DK, Momentum, and Mi Hazánk poll below viability thresholds. Escalating tensions, including intimidation allegations, have not dented TISZA's polling edge.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volume
$52,284,112
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election 11 days away on April 12, trader consensus heavily favors TISZA at nearly 70% implied probability to secure the most seats under the mixed single-member district and proportional list system, driven by independent polls like Medián's latest (58% TISZA vs. 35% Fidesz-KDNP among decided voters) and Reuters-reported surges showing a 20+ point lead widening in the past week. Péter Magyar's opposition momentum from half-million-strong March 15 rallies and voter discontent after 16 years of Fidesz governance outweigh recent Fidesz by-election victories, while fragmented rivals like DK, Momentum, and Mi Hazánk poll below viability thresholds. Escalating tensions, including intimidation allegations, have not dented TISZA's polling edge.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volume
$52,284,112
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

Related

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Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

69%
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Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

78%
Market icon

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

94%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "TISZA" at 70%, followed by "Fidesz-KDNP" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $52.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner" is "TISZA" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Fidesz-KDNP" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.