Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe 24%

Jordan Bardella 24%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$23,193,415 Vol.

Édouard Philippe 24%

Jordan Bardella 24%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$23,193,415 Vol.

Market icon

Édouard Philippe

$372,257 Vol.

24%

Market icon

Jordan Bardella

$593,875 Vol.

24%

Market icon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$211,558 Vol.

9%

Market icon

Marine Le Pen

$280,441 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Dominique de Villepin

$784,620 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Raphaël Glucksmann

$437,865 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Bruno Retailleau

$872,654 Vol.

4%

Market icon

François Hollande

$532,579 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Sarah Knafo

$933,365 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Gabriel Attal

$816,593 Vol.

3%

Market icon

David Lisnard

$644,397 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Sébastien Lecornu

$572,104 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Gérald Darmanin

$301,993 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jean Castex

$439,307 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Éric Zemmour

$327,593 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Juan Branco

$246,779 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Bernard Cazeneuve

$247,116 Vol.

1%

Market icon

François Ruffin

$276,789 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Marine Tondelier

$332,453 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,105,427 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Laurent Wauquiez

$281,082 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fabien Roussel

$810,433 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

François Asselineau

$1,065,749 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Valérie Pécresse

$911,720 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Élisabeth Borne

$925,805 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Manuel Bompard

$684,980 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Xavier Bertrand

$419,085 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Olivier Faure

$636,784 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Ségolène Royal

$819,947 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Clémentine Autain

$1,244,652 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Michel Barnier

$740,978 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

François Bayrou

$900,181 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$737,034 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Clémence Guetté

$1,009,712 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Carole Delga

$676,770 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mathilde Panot

$999,669 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections on March 15-22 highlighted National Rally vulnerabilities, as mainstream parties formed alliances in runoffs to block far-right gains in major cities, tempering Jordan Bardella's momentum despite his strong national polling lead of around 36-38% in first-round voting intentions from late-March Elabe and Harris surveys. Édouard Philippe's decisive re-election as Le Havre mayor solidified his position as the center-right frontrunner, with support rising to 25% in polls, fueling trader consensus of a neck-and-neck race at 24% and 23.5% implied probabilities amid a fragmented field where left-wing figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon trail far behind. Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote, potential endorsements, or scandals could consolidate blocs and create separation in this open contest under France's two-round system.

Recent municipal elections on March 15-22 highlighted National Rally vulnerabilities, as mainstream parties formed alliances in runoffs to block far-right gains in major cities, tempering Jordan Bardella's momentum despite his strong national polling lead of around 36-38% in first-round voting intentions from late-March Elabe and Harris surveys. Édouard Philippe's decisive re-election as Le Havre mayor solidified his position as the center-right frontrunner, with support rising to 25% in polls, fueling trader consensus of a neck-and-neck race at 24% and 23.5% implied probabilities amid a fragmented field where left-wing figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon trail far behind. Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote, potential endorsements, or scandals could consolidate blocs and create separation in this open contest under France's two-round system.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections on March 15-22 highlighted National Rally vulnerabilities, as mainstream parties formed alliances in runoffs to block far-right gains in major cities, tempering Jordan Bardella's momentum despite his strong national polling lead of around 36-38% in first-round voting intentions from late-March Elabe and Harris surveys. Édouard Philippe's decisive re-election as Le Havre mayor solidified his position as the center-right frontrunner, with support rising to 25% in polls, fueling trader consensus of a neck-and-neck race at 24% and 23.5% implied probabilities amid a fragmented field where left-wing figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon trail far behind. Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote, potential endorsements, or scandals could consolidate blocs and create separation in this open contest under France's two-round system.

Recent municipal elections on March 15-22 highlighted National Rally vulnerabilities, as mainstream parties formed alliances in runoffs to block far-right gains in major cities, tempering Jordan Bardella's momentum despite his strong national polling lead of around 36-38% in first-round voting intentions from late-March Elabe and Harris surveys. Édouard Philippe's decisive re-election as Le Havre mayor solidified his position as the center-right frontrunner, with support rising to 25% in polls, fueling trader consensus of a neck-and-neck race at 24% and 23.5% implied probabilities amid a fragmented field where left-wing figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon trail far behind. Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote, potential endorsements, or scandals could consolidate blocs and create separation in this open contest under France's two-round system.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 24%, followed by "Jordan Bardella" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $23.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Édouard Philippe" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.