Trader consensus slightly favors Michael Minogue at 46% implied probability for the Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial primary on September 1, driven by his campaign's early March Pulse Decision Science poll showing 29% support among modeled Republican primary voters and convention delegates—well above the 15% threshold needed at the Massachusetts GOP state convention on April 25 for ballot access. Brian Shortsleeve trails closely at 43.5% amid active campaigning, including naming running mate Shawn Oliver last week and recent attacks on Mike Kennealy over Lexington schools, while Kennealy lags at 11.5% following weaker showings in recent surveys. High undecided rates (around 47%) and conflicting internal polls keep the race competitive, with separation likely from convention delegate votes, new fundraising data, or endorsements ahead of Worcester.