Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled diplomacy and formidable military barriers amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict. Recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Isfahan, have disrupted enrichment but failed to secure Iran's estimated 450kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, likely relocated underground. Discussions of special forces raids—floated in early March—remain hypothetical, deemed risky and requiring massive ground operations by experts. Indirect Oman-mediated talks, including a US 15-point peace plan delivered March 24, have yielded no breakthroughs, with Iranian officials denying negotiations despite Trump's calls for a swift deal or escalated strikes. Upcoming ceasefire prospects offer slim paths forward, but logistical hurdles sustain skepticism.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
NEW
$21,012 Vol.
NEW
$21,012 Vol.
May 31, 2026
NEW
$21,012 Vol.
NEW
$21,012 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled diplomacy and formidable military barriers amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict. Recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Isfahan, have disrupted enrichment but failed to secure Iran's estimated 450kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, likely relocated underground. Discussions of special forces raids—floated in early March—remain hypothetical, deemed risky and requiring massive ground operations by experts. Indirect Oman-mediated talks, including a US 15-point peace plan delivered March 24, have yielded no breakthroughs, with Iranian officials denying negotiations despite Trump's calls for a swift deal or escalated strikes. Upcoming ceasefire prospects offer slim paths forward, but logistical hurdles sustain skepticism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$21,012End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled diplomacy and formidable military barriers amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict. Recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Isfahan, have disrupted enrichment but failed to secure Iran's estimated 450kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, likely relocated underground. Discussions of special forces raids—floated in early March—remain hypothetical, deemed risky and requiring massive ground operations by experts. Indirect Oman-mediated talks, including a US 15-point peace plan delivered March 24, have yielded no breakthroughs, with Iranian officials denying negotiations despite Trump's calls for a swift deal or escalated strikes. Upcoming ceasefire prospects offer slim paths forward, but logistical hurdles sustain skepticism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,290End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled diplomacy and formidable military barriers amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict. Recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Isfahan, have disrupted enrichment but failed to secure Iran's estimated 450kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, likely relocated underground. Discussions of special forces raids—floated in early March—remain hypothetical, deemed risky and requiring massive ground operations by experts. Indirect Oman-mediated talks, including a US 15-point peace plan delivered March 24, have yielded no breakthroughs, with Iranian officials denying negotiations despite Trump's calls for a swift deal or escalated strikes. Upcoming ceasefire prospects offer slim paths forward, but logistical hurdles sustain skepticism.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions