The 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and military infrastructure, has entered its fifth week with no confirmed U.S. ground forces entry into Iran. Recent escalations include Iran's claimed strikes on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and downing of additional U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones, prompting retaliatory precision strikes amid over 50,000 U.S. troops deployed regionally, including Marines, 82nd Airborne, and rapid-response units signaling potential amphibious operations on Persian Gulf islands. President Trump issued mixed signals on March 31, hinting at a swift exit after achieving goals while preparing a possible "final blow," as Iran rejected a U.S. 15-point diplomatic proposal. Traders monitor troop concentrations, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and negotiation breakthroughs for shifts in ground intervention odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$92,017,923 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
59%
December 31
67%
$92,017,923 Vol.
March 31
$64,587,459 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$17,290,263 Vol.
59%
December 31
$8,376,655 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.The 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and military infrastructure, has entered its fifth week with no confirmed U.S. ground forces entry into Iran. Recent escalations include Iran's claimed strikes on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and downing of additional U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones, prompting retaliatory precision strikes amid over 50,000 U.S. troops deployed regionally, including Marines, 82nd Airborne, and rapid-response units signaling potential amphibious operations on Persian Gulf islands. President Trump issued mixed signals on March 31, hinting at a swift exit after achieving goals while preparing a possible "final blow," as Iran rejected a U.S. 15-point diplomatic proposal. Traders monitor troop concentrations, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and negotiation breakthroughs for shifts in ground intervention odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$92,017,923Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.The 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and military infrastructure, has entered its fifth week with no confirmed U.S. ground forces entry into Iran. Recent escalations include Iran's claimed strikes on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and downing of additional U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones, prompting retaliatory precision strikes amid over 50,000 U.S. troops deployed regionally, including Marines, 82nd Airborne, and rapid-response units signaling potential amphibious operations on Persian Gulf islands. President Trump issued mixed signals on March 31, hinting at a swift exit after achieving goals while preparing a possible "final blow," as Iran rejected a U.S. 15-point diplomatic proposal. Traders monitor troop concentrations, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and negotiation breakthroughs for shifts in ground intervention odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$92,017,923Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and military infrastructure, has entered its fifth week with no confirmed U.S. ground forces entry into Iran. Recent escalations include Iran's claimed strikes on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and downing of additional U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones, prompting retaliatory precision strikes amid over 50,000 U.S. troops deployed regionally, including Marines, 82nd Airborne, and rapid-response units signaling potential amphibious operations on Persian Gulf islands. President Trump issued mixed signals on March 31, hinting at a swift exit after achieving goals while preparing a possible "final blow," as Iran rejected a U.S. 15-point diplomatic proposal. Traders monitor troop concentrations, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and negotiation breakthroughs for shifts in ground intervention odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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