Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, initiated by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military infrastructure, the Pentagon has prepared for weeks of limited ground operations, including potential raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites, driving trader focus on US forces entering Iranian territory. Over 50,000 US troops now deploy in the Middle East, with recent arrivals of Marine Expeditionary Units, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and special operations forces signaling escalation readiness. President Trump stated in an April 1 address that core objectives near completion and forces will "finish the job" soon, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan and warned of fierce resistance. No ground entry has occurred, but a White House decision on further military action looms amid stalled diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$98,982,887 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
62%
December 31
72%
$98,982,887 Vol.
March 31
$70,511,974 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$17,889,634 Vol.
62%
December 31
$8,514,320 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, initiated by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military infrastructure, the Pentagon has prepared for weeks of limited ground operations, including potential raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites, driving trader focus on US forces entering Iranian territory. Over 50,000 US troops now deploy in the Middle East, with recent arrivals of Marine Expeditionary Units, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and special operations forces signaling escalation readiness. President Trump stated in an April 1 address that core objectives near completion and forces will "finish the job" soon, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan and warned of fierce resistance. No ground entry has occurred, but a White House decision on further military action looms amid stalled diplomacy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$98,982,887Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, initiated by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military infrastructure, the Pentagon has prepared for weeks of limited ground operations, including potential raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites, driving trader focus on US forces entering Iranian territory. Over 50,000 US troops now deploy in the Middle East, with recent arrivals of Marine Expeditionary Units, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and special operations forces signaling escalation readiness. President Trump stated in an April 1 address that core objectives near completion and forces will "finish the job" soon, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan and warned of fierce resistance. No ground entry has occurred, but a White House decision on further military action looms amid stalled diplomacy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$98,982,887Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, initiated by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military infrastructure, the Pentagon has prepared for weeks of limited ground operations, including potential raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites, driving trader focus on US forces entering Iranian territory. Over 50,000 US troops now deploy in the Middle East, with recent arrivals of Marine Expeditionary Units, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and special operations forces signaling escalation readiness. President Trump stated in an April 1 address that core objectives near completion and forces will "finish the job" soon, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan and warned of fierce resistance. No ground entry has occurred, but a White House decision on further military action looms amid stalled diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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