Market icon
Politics·Iran

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Iran

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

9% chance
Polymarket

$475,040 Vol.

9% chance
Polymarket

$475,040 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordow, in June 2025—Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer—severely degraded enrichment capabilities and stockpiles, extending Iran's estimated breakout time well beyond 2027, per IAEA assessments. A February 2026 IAEA safeguards report and March Board statements confirm no verified diversion of nuclear material to weapons, despite halted inspections and attacks on remaining sites, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% for "No." Recent Institute for the Study of War updates through April 3 emphasize Iran's focus on ballistic missile reconstitution amid regime pressures, with no fresh proliferation signals. While diplomacy stalls, covert advances or leadership shifts could alter odds, though structural barriers persist.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$475,040
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordow, in June 2025—Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer—severely degraded enrichment capabilities and stockpiles, extending Iran's estimated breakout time well beyond 2027, per IAEA assessments. A February 2026 IAEA safeguards report and March Board statements confirm no verified diversion of nuclear material to weapons, despite halted inspections and attacks on remaining sites, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% for "No." Recent Institute for the Study of War updates through April 3 emphasize Iran's focus on ballistic missile reconstitution amid regime pressures, with no fresh proliferation signals. While diplomacy stalls, covert advances or leadership shifts could alter odds, though structural barriers persist.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$475,040
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran Nuke before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran Nuke before 2027?" has generated $475K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran Nuke before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.