Trader consensus prices Democrats at 79% to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven primarily by expectations around the April 21 redistricting referendum, where a recent poll shows 52% of likely voters favoring a constitutional amendment enabling the Democratic General Assembly to redraw maps—potentially shifting VA-01 from its current R+3 partisan lean into Democratic territory for a projected 10-1 advantage. High early voting turnout in GOP strongholds and a strong Republican special election win in VA House District 98 last month signal opposition motivation, yet traders bet on passage. Incumbent Rob Wittman faces Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor, competitive per September polling and endorsements from Abigail Spanberger; Cook rates Lean Republican ahead of the August 4 Democratic primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$14,586 Vol.
$14,586 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
79%
共和党
20%
$14,586 Vol.
$14,586 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$14,288 Vol.
79%
共和党
$297 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democrats at 79% to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven primarily by expectations around the April 21 redistricting referendum, where a recent poll shows 52% of likely voters favoring a constitutional amendment enabling the Democratic General Assembly to redraw maps—potentially shifting VA-01 from its current R+3 partisan lean into Democratic territory for a projected 10-1 advantage. High early voting turnout in GOP strongholds and a strong Republican special election win in VA House District 98 last month signal opposition motivation, yet traders bet on passage. Incumbent Rob Wittman faces Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor, competitive per September polling and endorsements from Abigail Spanberger; Cook rates Lean Republican ahead of the August 4 Democratic primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
音量
$14,586終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democrats at 79% to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven primarily by expectations around the April 21 redistricting referendum, where a recent poll shows 52% of likely voters favoring a constitutional amendment enabling the Democratic General Assembly to redraw maps—potentially shifting VA-01 from its current R+3 partisan lean into Democratic territory for a projected 10-1 advantage. High early voting turnout in GOP strongholds and a strong Republican special election win in VA House District 98 last month signal opposition motivation, yet traders bet on passage. Incumbent Rob Wittman faces Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor, competitive per September polling and endorsements from Abigail Spanberger; Cook rates Lean Republican ahead of the August 4 Democratic primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$14,586終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Democrats at 79% to win Virginia's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven primarily by expectations around the April 21 redistricting referendum, where a recent poll shows 52% of likely voters favoring a constitutional amendment enabling the Democratic General Assembly to redraw maps—potentially shifting VA-01 from its current R+3 partisan lean into Democratic territory for a projected 10-1 advantage. High early voting turnout in GOP strongholds and a strong Republican special election win in VA House District 98 last month signal opposition motivation, yet traders bet on passage. Incumbent Rob Wittman faces Henrico prosecutor Shannon Taylor, competitive per September polling and endorsements from Abigail Spanberger; Cook rates Lean Republican ahead of the August 4 Democratic primary.
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