Incumbent Republican Mark Messmer holds a commanding position in the deeply conservative IN-08 district, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+18 partisan voter index, reflecting trader consensus at 93% for the GOP ahead of the May 5 primaries. Messmer, who won 68% in his 2024 debut, faces no Republican primary challengers and boasts $544,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing Democratic contenders like Mary Allen ($83,000 cash) in a fragmented primary field of four low-fundraising candidates. Recent redistricting solidified the seat's GOP tilt, with no polls showing Democratic viability despite a national generic ballot edge for Democrats. Upsets would require a Messmer scandal, massive Democratic spending surge, or extraordinary midterm turnout shift in this safe Republican stronghold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$18,304 Vol.
$18,304 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$18,304 Vol.
$18,304 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$12,927 Vol.
94%
民主党
$5,377 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Messmer holds a commanding position in the deeply conservative IN-08 district, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+18 partisan voter index, reflecting trader consensus at 93% for the GOP ahead of the May 5 primaries. Messmer, who won 68% in his 2024 debut, faces no Republican primary challengers and boasts $544,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing Democratic contenders like Mary Allen ($83,000 cash) in a fragmented primary field of four low-fundraising candidates. Recent redistricting solidified the seat's GOP tilt, with no polls showing Democratic viability despite a national generic ballot edge for Democrats. Upsets would require a Messmer scandal, massive Democratic spending surge, or extraordinary midterm turnout shift in this safe Republican stronghold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$18,304終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Messmer holds a commanding position in the deeply conservative IN-08 district, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+18 partisan voter index, reflecting trader consensus at 93% for the GOP ahead of the May 5 primaries. Messmer, who won 68% in his 2024 debut, faces no Republican primary challengers and boasts $544,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing Democratic contenders like Mary Allen ($83,000 cash) in a fragmented primary field of four low-fundraising candidates. Recent redistricting solidified the seat's GOP tilt, with no polls showing Democratic viability despite a national generic ballot edge for Democrats. Upsets would require a Messmer scandal, massive Democratic spending surge, or extraordinary midterm turnout shift in this safe Republican stronghold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,304終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Messmer holds a commanding position in the deeply conservative IN-08 district, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+18 partisan voter index, reflecting trader consensus at 93% for the GOP ahead of the May 5 primaries. Messmer, who won 68% in his 2024 debut, faces no Republican primary challengers and boasts $544,000 cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing Democratic contenders like Mary Allen ($83,000 cash) in a fragmented primary field of four low-fundraising candidates. Recent redistricting solidified the seat's GOP tilt, with no polls showing Democratic viability despite a national generic ballot edge for Democrats. Upsets would require a Messmer scandal, massive Democratic spending surge, or extraordinary midterm turnout shift in this safe Republican stronghold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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