Texas's 30th congressional district exhibits a durable Democratic advantage driven by its urban Dallas demographics, consistent voter turnout patterns, and historical margins often exceeding 30 points for the party in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Jasmine Crockett's Senate candidacy produced a decisive Democratic primary victory for Frederick Haynes III, while Republican contenders advanced through a May runoff with limited prospects in the general election. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the party an overwhelming probability of victory. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting the nominee or an unanticipated national partisan wave remain the primary scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$1,547 Vol.
92%
共和党
$1,991 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 30th congressional district exhibits a durable Democratic advantage driven by its urban Dallas demographics, consistent voter turnout patterns, and historical margins often exceeding 30 points for the party in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Jasmine Crockett's Senate candidacy produced a decisive Democratic primary victory for Frederick Haynes III, while Republican contenders advanced through a May runoff with limited prospects in the general election. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the party an overwhelming probability of victory. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting the nominee or an unanticipated national partisan wave remain the primary scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$3,539終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 30th congressional district exhibits a durable Democratic advantage driven by its urban Dallas demographics, consistent voter turnout patterns, and historical margins often exceeding 30 points for the party in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Jasmine Crockett's Senate candidacy produced a decisive Democratic primary victory for Frederick Haynes III, while Republican contenders advanced through a May runoff with limited prospects in the general election. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the party an overwhelming probability of victory. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting the nominee or an unanticipated national partisan wave remain the primary scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,539終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 30th congressional district exhibits a durable Democratic advantage driven by its urban Dallas demographics, consistent voter turnout patterns, and historical margins often exceeding 30 points for the party in recent cycles. The open seat created by incumbent Jasmine Crockett's Senate candidacy produced a decisive Democratic primary victory for Frederick Haynes III, while Republican contenders advanced through a May runoff with limited prospects in the general election. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the party an overwhelming probability of victory. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting the nominee or an unanticipated national partisan wave remain the primary scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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