Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman’s long tenure since 1996, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million in cash on hand, and endorsements from state Democratic organizations anchor trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory in California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+14 and heavy Democratic voter registration, rendering Republican nominee Larry Thompson’s path narrow even if he advances from the June 2 top-two primary. Multiple Democratic challengers are splitting opposition votes in the primary without recent polling or fundraising shifts that would alter the outlook. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected primary upset could theoretically reopen the race, yet none have materialized in the past month to move implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$14,412 Vol.
$14,412 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$14,412 Vol.
$14,412 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,871 Vol.
93%
共和党
$8,541 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman’s long tenure since 1996, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million in cash on hand, and endorsements from state Democratic organizations anchor trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory in California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+14 and heavy Democratic voter registration, rendering Republican nominee Larry Thompson’s path narrow even if he advances from the June 2 top-two primary. Multiple Democratic challengers are splitting opposition votes in the primary without recent polling or fundraising shifts that would alter the outlook. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected primary upset could theoretically reopen the race, yet none have materialized in the past month to move implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$14,412終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman’s long tenure since 1996, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million in cash on hand, and endorsements from state Democratic organizations anchor trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory in California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+14 and heavy Democratic voter registration, rendering Republican nominee Larry Thompson’s path narrow even if he advances from the June 2 top-two primary. Multiple Democratic challengers are splitting opposition votes in the primary without recent polling or fundraising shifts that would alter the outlook. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected primary upset could theoretically reopen the race, yet none have materialized in the past month to move implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$14,412終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman’s long tenure since 1996, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million in cash on hand, and endorsements from state Democratic organizations anchor trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory in California’s 32nd congressional district. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+14 and heavy Democratic voter registration, rendering Republican nominee Larry Thompson’s path narrow even if he advances from the June 2 top-two primary. Multiple Democratic challengers are splitting opposition votes in the primary without recent polling or fundraising shifts that would alter the outlook. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected primary upset could theoretically reopen the race, yet none have materialized in the past month to move implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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