Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 91% in Indiana's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong GOP lean (Cook PVI R+15, Solid Republican rating) and incumbent Jim Baird's historical dominance, with 65% general election margins in recent cycles. Recent health questions surrounding the 80-year-old Baird—intensified by his January car crash recovery—have fueled a competitive Republican primary against state Rep. Craig Haggard ahead of the May 5 vote, yet have minimally eroded general odds amid a fragmented Democratic field of seven challengers lacking a clear frontrunner. Scenarios to challenge this include a weakened GOP nominee from primary infighting, Democratic consolidation behind a viable candidate, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$0 Vol.
91%
民主党
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 91% in Indiana's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong GOP lean (Cook PVI R+15, Solid Republican rating) and incumbent Jim Baird's historical dominance, with 65% general election margins in recent cycles. Recent health questions surrounding the 80-year-old Baird—intensified by his January car crash recovery—have fueled a competitive Republican primary against state Rep. Craig Haggard ahead of the May 5 vote, yet have minimally eroded general odds amid a fragmented Democratic field of seven challengers lacking a clear frontrunner. Scenarios to challenge this include a weakened GOP nominee from primary infighting, Democratic consolidation behind a viable candidate, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 91% in Indiana's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong GOP lean (Cook PVI R+15, Solid Republican rating) and incumbent Jim Baird's historical dominance, with 65% general election margins in recent cycles. Recent health questions surrounding the 80-year-old Baird—intensified by his January car crash recovery—have fueled a competitive Republican primary against state Rep. Craig Haggard ahead of the May 5 vote, yet have minimally eroded general odds amid a fragmented Democratic field of seven challengers lacking a clear frontrunner. Scenarios to challenge this include a weakened GOP nominee from primary infighting, Democratic consolidation behind a viable candidate, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 91% in Indiana's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong GOP lean (Cook PVI R+15, Solid Republican rating) and incumbent Jim Baird's historical dominance, with 65% general election margins in recent cycles. Recent health questions surrounding the 80-year-old Baird—intensified by his January car crash recovery—have fueled a competitive Republican primary against state Rep. Craig Haggard ahead of the May 5 vote, yet have minimally eroded general odds amid a fragmented Democratic field of seven challengers lacking a clear frontrunner. Scenarios to challenge this include a weakened GOP nominee from primary infighting, Democratic consolidation behind a viable candidate, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
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