Rep. Brett Guthrie, the longtime Republican incumbent in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District since 2009, drives trader consensus at 91.5% for the GOP in the November 2026 general election after filing for re-election in December 2025. The district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by Guthrie's consistent double-digit victories, including 2024—combined with his powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee chairmanship and robust fundraising, solidifies this position amid minimal Democratic opposition. Challenger William Compton, an orchestra teacher and former city commissioner, has secured niche endorsements but trails significantly in resources. Potential shifts could arise from a competitive GOP primary on May 19, a major scandal, or an unexpected national Democratic wave, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$0 Vol.
92%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rep. Brett Guthrie, the longtime Republican incumbent in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District since 2009, drives trader consensus at 91.5% for the GOP in the November 2026 general election after filing for re-election in December 2025. The district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by Guthrie's consistent double-digit victories, including 2024—combined with his powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee chairmanship and robust fundraising, solidifies this position amid minimal Democratic opposition. Challenger William Compton, an orchestra teacher and former city commissioner, has secured niche endorsements but trails significantly in resources. Potential shifts could arise from a competitive GOP primary on May 19, a major scandal, or an unexpected national Democratic wave, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rep. Brett Guthrie, the longtime Republican incumbent in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District since 2009, drives trader consensus at 91.5% for the GOP in the November 2026 general election after filing for re-election in December 2025. The district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by Guthrie's consistent double-digit victories, including 2024—combined with his powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee chairmanship and robust fundraising, solidifies this position amid minimal Democratic opposition. Challenger William Compton, an orchestra teacher and former city commissioner, has secured niche endorsements but trails significantly in resources. Potential shifts could arise from a competitive GOP primary on May 19, a major scandal, or an unexpected national Democratic wave, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rep. Brett Guthrie, the longtime Republican incumbent in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District since 2009, drives trader consensus at 91.5% for the GOP in the November 2026 general election after filing for re-election in December 2025. The district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by Guthrie's consistent double-digit victories, including 2024—combined with his powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee chairmanship and robust fundraising, solidifies this position amid minimal Democratic opposition. Challenger William Compton, an orchestra teacher and former city commissioner, has secured niche endorsements but trails significantly in resources. Potential shifts could arise from a competitive GOP primary on May 19, a major scandal, or an unexpected national Democratic wave, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
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