The Arkansas 4th congressional district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the Republican nominee. Incumbent Bruce Westerman advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democrat James Russell in the November general election. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns that favor GOP candidates by wide margins. Traders appear to view the combination of partisan lean, incumbency, and limited Democratic resources as creating substantial barriers to an upset. Even with this consensus, late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or significant national political shifts could still alter the outcome before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,830 Vol.
$15,830 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
4%
$15,830 Vol.
$15,830 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$9,581 Vol.
94%
民主党
$6,248 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Arkansas 4th congressional district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the Republican nominee. Incumbent Bruce Westerman advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democrat James Russell in the November general election. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns that favor GOP candidates by wide margins. Traders appear to view the combination of partisan lean, incumbency, and limited Democratic resources as creating substantial barriers to an upset. Even with this consensus, late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or significant national political shifts could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$15,830終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Arkansas 4th congressional district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the Republican nominee. Incumbent Bruce Westerman advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democrat James Russell in the November general election. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns that favor GOP candidates by wide margins. Traders appear to view the combination of partisan lean, incumbency, and limited Democratic resources as creating substantial barriers to an upset. Even with this consensus, late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or significant national political shifts could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,830終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Arkansas 4th congressional district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the Republican nominee. Incumbent Bruce Westerman advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democrat James Russell in the November general election. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns that favor GOP candidates by wide margins. Traders appear to view the combination of partisan lean, incumbency, and limited Democratic resources as creating substantial barriers to an upset. Even with this consensus, late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or significant national political shifts could still alter the outcome before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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