Incumbent Rep. Jared Huffman (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in California's 2nd Congressional District due to the seat's D+24 partisan lean, where Kamala Harris won by 25 points, and Huffman's history of blowout victories, including 72% in 2024. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 expanded the district to include Redding but preserved its solidly blue character, while Huffman's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs fragmented Republican challengers—Tim Geist, Robin Littau, Paul Saulsbury, and Angelita Valles—in the June 2 top-two primary. Superior incumbency advantage and fundraising solidify this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include a major Huffman scandal, unified GOP momentum post-primary, or a national anti-incumbent midterm wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$0 Vol.
92%
共和党
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jared Huffman (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in California's 2nd Congressional District due to the seat's D+24 partisan lean, where Kamala Harris won by 25 points, and Huffman's history of blowout victories, including 72% in 2024. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 expanded the district to include Redding but preserved its solidly blue character, while Huffman's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs fragmented Republican challengers—Tim Geist, Robin Littau, Paul Saulsbury, and Angelita Valles—in the June 2 top-two primary. Superior incumbency advantage and fundraising solidify this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include a major Huffman scandal, unified GOP momentum post-primary, or a national anti-incumbent midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jared Huffman (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in California's 2nd Congressional District due to the seat's D+24 partisan lean, where Kamala Harris won by 25 points, and Huffman's history of blowout victories, including 72% in 2024. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 expanded the district to include Redding but preserved its solidly blue character, while Huffman's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs fragmented Republican challengers—Tim Geist, Robin Littau, Paul Saulsbury, and Angelita Valles—in the June 2 top-two primary. Superior incumbency advantage and fundraising solidify this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include a major Huffman scandal, unified GOP momentum post-primary, or a national anti-incumbent midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jared Huffman (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in California's 2nd Congressional District due to the seat's D+24 partisan lean, where Kamala Harris won by 25 points, and Huffman's history of blowout victories, including 72% in 2024. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 expanded the district to include Redding but preserved its solidly blue character, while Huffman's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs fragmented Republican challengers—Tim Geist, Robin Littau, Paul Saulsbury, and Angelita Valles—in the June 2 top-two primary. Superior incumbency advantage and fundraising solidify this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include a major Huffman scandal, unified GOP momentum post-primary, or a national anti-incumbent midterm wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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