The strong Republican lean of Texas’s 38th congressional district, rated R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, continues to anchor trader expectations that the eventual GOP nominee will prevail in the November general election. Incumbent Wesley Hunt’s decision to seek a U.S. Senate seat left the seat open, prompting a crowded March 3 Republican primary that advanced mortgage banker Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos to a May 26 runoff; Bonck’s Trump endorsement and early fundraising lead have reinforced perceptions of a smooth transition to a Republican hold. On the Democratic side, Melissa McDonough emerged from the March primary, yet the party’s historical performance in the district and limited recent polling gains have kept its implied probability well below 20 percent. With the runoff just days away and no major late developments reported, market pricing reflects the structural and timing advantages favoring the Republican outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,478 Vol.
$15,478 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
79%
民主党
19%
$15,478 Vol.
$15,478 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$10,513 Vol.
79%
民主党
$4,965 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Texas’s 38th congressional district, rated R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, continues to anchor trader expectations that the eventual GOP nominee will prevail in the November general election. Incumbent Wesley Hunt’s decision to seek a U.S. Senate seat left the seat open, prompting a crowded March 3 Republican primary that advanced mortgage banker Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos to a May 26 runoff; Bonck’s Trump endorsement and early fundraising lead have reinforced perceptions of a smooth transition to a Republican hold. On the Democratic side, Melissa McDonough emerged from the March primary, yet the party’s historical performance in the district and limited recent polling gains have kept its implied probability well below 20 percent. With the runoff just days away and no major late developments reported, market pricing reflects the structural and timing advantages favoring the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$15,478終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Texas’s 38th congressional district, rated R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, continues to anchor trader expectations that the eventual GOP nominee will prevail in the November general election. Incumbent Wesley Hunt’s decision to seek a U.S. Senate seat left the seat open, prompting a crowded March 3 Republican primary that advanced mortgage banker Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos to a May 26 runoff; Bonck’s Trump endorsement and early fundraising lead have reinforced perceptions of a smooth transition to a Republican hold. On the Democratic side, Melissa McDonough emerged from the March primary, yet the party’s historical performance in the district and limited recent polling gains have kept its implied probability well below 20 percent. With the runoff just days away and no major late developments reported, market pricing reflects the structural and timing advantages favoring the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,478終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Texas’s 38th congressional district, rated R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, continues to anchor trader expectations that the eventual GOP nominee will prevail in the November general election. Incumbent Wesley Hunt’s decision to seek a U.S. Senate seat left the seat open, prompting a crowded March 3 Republican primary that advanced mortgage banker Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos to a May 26 runoff; Bonck’s Trump endorsement and early fundraising lead have reinforced perceptions of a smooth transition to a Republican hold. On the Democratic side, Melissa McDonough emerged from the March primary, yet the party’s historical performance in the district and limited recent polling gains have kept its implied probability well below 20 percent. With the runoff just days away and no major late developments reported, market pricing reflects the structural and timing advantages favoring the Republican outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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