Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a commanding lead in California's 31st Congressional District ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he faces Republicans Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, driving trader consensus to 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. The district's Democratic voter registration edge and Cisneros's 2024 victory over GOP challenger Dan Martinez reinforce incumbency advantages in this safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report ratings. No major polling or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to shift dynamics. Potential challenges include a GOP primary upset advancing a strong nominee, Cisneros personal or ethical issues, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,528 Vol.
94%
共和党
$3,113 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a commanding lead in California's 31st Congressional District ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he faces Republicans Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, driving trader consensus to 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. The district's Democratic voter registration edge and Cisneros's 2024 victory over GOP challenger Dan Martinez reinforce incumbency advantages in this safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report ratings. No major polling or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to shift dynamics. Potential challenges include a GOP primary upset advancing a strong nominee, Cisneros personal or ethical issues, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$6,642終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a commanding lead in California's 31st Congressional District ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he faces Republicans Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, driving trader consensus to 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. The district's Democratic voter registration edge and Cisneros's 2024 victory over GOP challenger Dan Martinez reinforce incumbency advantages in this safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report ratings. No major polling or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to shift dynamics. Potential challenges include a GOP primary upset advancing a strong nominee, Cisneros personal or ethical issues, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,642終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a commanding lead in California's 31st Congressional District ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he faces Republicans Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, driving trader consensus to 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. The district's Democratic voter registration edge and Cisneros's 2024 victory over GOP challenger Dan Martinez reinforce incumbency advantages in this safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report ratings. No major polling or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to shift dynamics. Potential challenges include a GOP primary upset advancing a strong nominee, Cisneros personal or ethical issues, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問