Incumbent Republican Rep. Mark Alford's unopposed path in the August 4, 2026, Republican primary for Missouri's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+21, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at overwhelming odds. Alford's prior victories by 71% margins in 2022 and 2024, bolstered by the Missouri Farm Bureau PAC's reelection endorsement on March 16, reinforce this positioning amid a fragmented Democratic primary featuring Hartzell Gray, Jordan Herrera, Danny Province, and recent entrant Luke Rae. While a GOP scandal, Alford retirement, or massive national Democratic wave could shift dynamics, structural district leanings and incumbency advantage maintain the commanding Republican edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
92%
民主党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Mark Alford's unopposed path in the August 4, 2026, Republican primary for Missouri's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+21, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at overwhelming odds. Alford's prior victories by 71% margins in 2022 and 2024, bolstered by the Missouri Farm Bureau PAC's reelection endorsement on March 16, reinforce this positioning amid a fragmented Democratic primary featuring Hartzell Gray, Jordan Herrera, Danny Province, and recent entrant Luke Rae. While a GOP scandal, Alford retirement, or massive national Democratic wave could shift dynamics, structural district leanings and incumbency advantage maintain the commanding Republican edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Mark Alford's unopposed path in the August 4, 2026, Republican primary for Missouri's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+21, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at overwhelming odds. Alford's prior victories by 71% margins in 2022 and 2024, bolstered by the Missouri Farm Bureau PAC's reelection endorsement on March 16, reinforce this positioning amid a fragmented Democratic primary featuring Hartzell Gray, Jordan Herrera, Danny Province, and recent entrant Luke Rae. While a GOP scandal, Alford retirement, or massive national Democratic wave could shift dynamics, structural district leanings and incumbency advantage maintain the commanding Republican edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Mark Alford's unopposed path in the August 4, 2026, Republican primary for Missouri's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+21, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP at overwhelming odds. Alford's prior victories by 71% margins in 2022 and 2024, bolstered by the Missouri Farm Bureau PAC's reelection endorsement on March 16, reinforce this positioning amid a fragmented Democratic primary featuring Hartzell Gray, Jordan Herrera, Danny Province, and recent entrant Luke Rae. While a GOP scandal, Alford retirement, or massive national Democratic wave could shift dynamics, structural district leanings and incumbency advantage maintain the commanding Republican edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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