The Missouri 4th congressional district's R+21 partisan voting index and incumbent Mark Alford's established position anchor the Republican Party's dominant 93.5% implied probability in this race. Alford secured the seat in 2022 and prevailed in the prior general election by more than 40 points, while Democratic primary contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising or name recognition ahead of the August 4, 2026, primaries. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid Republican, reflecting structural electoral geography that favors the party in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus incorporates these fundamentals, though an unexpected national wave, redistricting ruling, or late primary upset could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,403 Vol.
$30,403 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$30,403 Vol.
$30,403 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$16,483 Vol.
94%
民主党
$13,920 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Missouri 4th congressional district's R+21 partisan voting index and incumbent Mark Alford's established position anchor the Republican Party's dominant 93.5% implied probability in this race. Alford secured the seat in 2022 and prevailed in the prior general election by more than 40 points, while Democratic primary contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising or name recognition ahead of the August 4, 2026, primaries. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid Republican, reflecting structural electoral geography that favors the party in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus incorporates these fundamentals, though an unexpected national wave, redistricting ruling, or late primary upset could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$30,403終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Missouri 4th congressional district's R+21 partisan voting index and incumbent Mark Alford's established position anchor the Republican Party's dominant 93.5% implied probability in this race. Alford secured the seat in 2022 and prevailed in the prior general election by more than 40 points, while Democratic primary contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising or name recognition ahead of the August 4, 2026, primaries. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid Republican, reflecting structural electoral geography that favors the party in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus incorporates these fundamentals, though an unexpected national wave, redistricting ruling, or late primary upset could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,403終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Missouri 4th congressional district's R+21 partisan voting index and incumbent Mark Alford's established position anchor the Republican Party's dominant 93.5% implied probability in this race. Alford secured the seat in 2022 and prevailed in the prior general election by more than 40 points, while Democratic primary contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising or name recognition ahead of the August 4, 2026, primaries. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid Republican, reflecting structural electoral geography that favors the party in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus incorporates these fundamentals, though an unexpected national wave, redistricting ruling, or late primary upset could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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